The U.S. must not abandon Afghanistan again
As its first foreign policy move, the Biden administration is set to review last year’s U.S.-Taliban deal. National Security Adviser Jack Sullivan conveyed the message to his Afghan counterpart, Hamdullah Mohib, on Jan. 22, that the president will assess whether the Taliban are living up to their commitment under the accord. The deal called for the Taliban to cut ties with terrorist groups, reduce violence in the country, and engage in meaningful negotiations with the Afghan government and other stakeholders.
Sullivan said that the U.S. will support the peace process with a robust diplomatic effort aimed at achieving a “durable and just political settlement and permanent ceasefire.” The message also stated U.S. support to protect the progress made on women and minority rights as part of the peace process. Welcoming the message, the government in Kabul is relieved because there was uncertainty about the new administration’s approach.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken also said in his confirmation hearing this month, “We want to end this so-called forever war.” But, he added, the U.S. wants to retain some capacity to deal with any resurgence of terrorism and, because he wasn’t privy to last year’s peace accord, “we have to look carefully at what has actually been negotiated.”
Afghanistan has, indeed, violated the spirit of the agreement. The Taliban have not cut their links with terrorists, and they have not ceased violence against civilians. Rather, the violence has increased in recent months, especially in Kabul. Brazen murders of journalists, human rights activists, politicians, and Afghani officials have continued in broad daylight and two women judges were recently assassinated.
For Biden, it must be dejá vu. Ten years ago, as vice president, he was engaged in a similar Afghan policy review. Reportedly, he wanted to get out of Afghanistan, invoking the lessons of the Vietnam War. But the generals,
David Petraeus and Stanley McChrystal, supported by Obama’s Defense Secretary, Robert Gates, won the argument for a surge and a commitment to stay to contain the Taliban.
All indications are that Biden seeks an orderly withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. Under the accord, all U.S. and foreign troops are to withdraw by April 30, but the U.S. would certainly like to keep some U.S. forces in Afghanistan for the foreseeable future to continue its counter-terrorism operations. What the “orderly” withdrawal means and how it is to be achieved will require difficult and skillful negotiating. The need will be to extend the May timeline in the Doha Pact by perhaps at least six months, but the Taliban insist that the deadline be met.
The U.S. has to be keenly interested in the outcome of the peace process. It wants Afghanistan not to again become a safe
haven for al-Qaeda and other terrorists. But it also seeks to ensure that the gains made in the last few years are secured and the democratic process slowly taking roots in Afghanistan is preserved and strengthened and is keen to promote regional stability.
That is where Pakistan becomes a critical player, because the Taliban are its proxy force. At his U.S. Senate confirmation hearings on January 22, Austin praised Pakistan for having taken “constructive steps to meet U.S. requests in support of the Afghanistan peace process.” He intends to seek further cooperation from Pakistan to reach the eventual peace agreement. CNN has reported that Zalmay Khalilzad, who enjoys an excellent relationship with the Taliban as well as Pakistan, will be continuing in his position as U.S. Special Representative.
Effective pressure on Pakistan and on the Taliban is the key to a stable Afghanistan. Biden and his national security team, Secretaries Blinken and Lloyd Austin and Sullivan, are all old hands who fully understand and appreciate the geopolitical complexities involved in the region. These include Pakistan’s harboring terrorists, its military’s obsession with India, and its goal to shape Afghanistan through its proxy, the Taliban.
The call to bring the forces home has powerful appeal, but Afghan forces, without U.S. help, are no match for the Taliban’s onslaught. Hence, the U.S. must stay in an advisory capacity and continue with the help of its partners to provide the necessary economic aid for development.
There is no crystal ball to predict how the future will unfold in Afghanistan. But the U.S. must not abandon the country again. Afghan partners must be supported to ensure that the Taliban do not prevail to rule Afghanistan with an iron hand, oppressing women and minorities and becoming a safe haven for terrorists.