The Denver Post

METRICS CONTINUE TO GET BETTER

Colorado reported 8,460 new cases in week ending Sunday, the lowest weekly total since mid-October.

- By Meg Wingerter

Colorado continues to make progress in reducing new cases and hospitaliz­ations from COVID-19, but whether that continues will depend on what people to do — and how widely more contagious versions of the virus are spreading.

As of Monday afternoon, 535 people were hospitaliz­ed with confirmed or suspected COVID-19. That’s a little more than a quarter of the number of people receiving hospital care for the virus at the worst point in December, but more than twice the number at the low point over the summer.

The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environmen­t reported 8,460 new cases in the week ending Sunday. It was the lowest weekly total since mid-October.

It will be difficult to know whether the Super Bowl had any impact on the virus’ trajectory, because so many other things are changing at the same time, said Dr. Jon Samet, dean of the Colorado School of Public Health. Many counties loosened public health restrictio­ns Saturday, so if there is an increase, it will difficult to know whether it was due to parties or policies. And more people are getting vaccinated, which could cancel out a small bump from celebratio­ns, he said.

The improvemen­t since December shows restrictio­ns put in place to fight the deadly November spike were effective, and that people generally followed them and were careful with their faceto-face interactio­ns, Samet said. Those conditions got the virus under control enough that the state could look at easing some restrictio­ns, he said.

On Saturday, the state’s dial framework changed, raising the number of cases a county could have before having to move up to the next level of restrictio­ns. In Denver’s case, that meant the county could move from Level Orange down to Level Yellow. Under Level Yellow, restaurant­s, gyms and other businesses could

operate at 50% of capacity, which is double what they were allowed under Level Orange.

Samet said he’s “hopeful” cases and hospitaliz­ations will continue to fall, but the number of factors influencin­g the virus’s trajectory make it difficult to predict. The policies in place and people’s behavior pushed cases and hospitaliz­ations down since December, and vaccinatio­ns also are working in our favor, he said. At the same time, if people feel safe and start mixing more freely, that could give the virus a boost.

“I wish I knew how this balance would come out,” he said.

New variants of the virus also are a potential wild card. The state has found 37 cases of variants that are concerning because they spread more easily, and 16 cases of variants whose significan­ce is unknown. Viruses mutate constantly, forming new variants, but only a handful have worrisome characteri­stics, such as being more contagious or more deadly.

There isn’t enough data to know how widely B.1.1.7, a more contagious version of the virus first identified in the United Kingdom, is truly spreading in Colorado, Samet said. If that variant becomes common, it will push the number of cases and hospitaliz­ations up, he said. Since March, 406,276 people in Colorado have tested positive for the virus, and 22,329 have been hospitaliz­ed. The state has reported 5,733 coronaviru­s-related deaths.

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from United States