The top storylines, free agents and teams that could rise, fall in 2021
Against significant odds, the NFL completed its 269-game season Sunday night when Tampa Bay walloped Kansas City 31-9 in the Super Bowl.
But the coronavirus pandemic isn’t going anywhere and will impact a second consecutive offseason. Free agent and pre-draft visits? Unlikely.
A full set of on-field practices in May/June? Ditto. An on-time reporting window to training camp in late July? Hopefully.
Add in a lower salary cap (by as much as $18 million) and the onus will be on general managers and contract negotiators to improve the roster with an eye on the present and future finances.
Looking ahead to the offseason, which teams are set to rise or fall? What are the top storylines? And which free agents should be on the Broncos’ radar?
Here is a primer for the next few months: Top non-QB storylines
Normal offseason program over? It sure sounds like it, which is unfortunate for young teams like the Broncos, which want to maximize every opportunity to meet or practice.
The pandemic could make the ’21 offseason program all virtual again; teams should hope for some on-field time before training camp.
Addition of 17th game: The NFL has the ability to implement the 17-game schedule in ’21, but Commissioner Roger Goodell said last week no decision has been finalized.
Salary cap gymnastics: The projected salary cap will be $180.1 million, according to ESPN, down from $198.2 million in 2020. Will it impact the big-money free-agent signings? Maybe, but not as much as the league’s middle class of players, who will be released or asked to take pay cuts.
Packed pass-rusher market: Every team covets pass-rushing depth and next month’s free agents include Shaq Barrett (Tampa Bay), Melvin Ingram (Chargers), Leonard Floyd (Rams), Yannick Ngakoue (Baltimore) and Bud Dupree (Pittsburgh).
Receivers changing places: The glut of college receivers has allowed teams like the Broncos to use the draft to add pass catchers. But this is a rare freeagent year. Allen Robinson (Chicago), Kenny Golladay (Detroit), Chris Godwin (Tampa Bay) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (Pittsburgh) top the market.
Teams who could rise
Seven teams who missed the 2019 playoffs qualified for the ’20 postseason: Tampa Bay, Washington, Chicago and the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC and Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Indianapolis in the AFC. A look at five teams that could rise in ’21:
1. Dallas (6-10): The Cowboys will get quarterback Dak Prescott (ankle) back, but the key will be new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, hired to fix a unit that was 31st against the run (158.8) and 27th in scoring (29.6).
2. Miami (10-6): If the Dolphins acquire quarterback Deshaun Watson, they will be in prime position to battle Buffalo in the AFC East. If they don’t, an improvement from Tua Tagovailoa will be required.
3. L.A. Chargers (7-9): Watch out for the Bolts. Quarterback Justin Herbert enters his second year and the defense gets safety Derwin James back from injury. Ingram and linebacker Denzel Perryman are free agents.
4. San Francisco (6-10): The 49ers’ NFC title defense was derailed by roster-wide injuries. If coach Kyle Shanahan can get better play from quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (or another QB), they could be back in the mix.
5. Jacksonville (1-15): Hey, why not? The Jaguars will draft quarterback Trevor Lawrence first overall, which could follow a nice spending spree in free agency.
Teams who could slide
New England, Houston, San Francisco, Philadelphia and Minnesota all missed the 2020 playoffs after qualifying in ’19. A look at five postseason teams that could slide:
1. Pittsburgh (12-4): Our last impression of the Steelers was getting rolled early (and semi-rallying) in their playoff loss to Cleveland. Yikes. Among their free agents are Dupree, receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster and left tackle Alejandro Villanueva.
2. New Orleans (12-4): The Saints’ bill for going for a second Super Bowl title in the Sean Payton/Drew Brees era is about to come due. Is there enough money to re-sign safety Marcus Williams and outside linebacker Trey Hendrickson? And who plays quarterback?
3. Indianapolis (11-5): Had the Colts acquired quarterback Matthew Stafford, they wouldn’t be on this list. They need to find replacements for Philip Rivers and left tackle Anthony Castonzo and make decisions on receiver T.Y. Hilton and cornerback Xavier Rhodes.
4. Chicago (8-8): The Bears were Exhibit A for not keeping the 14-team playoff format. The Bears squeaked in despite a five-game losing streak in November/December.
5. Tennessee (11-5): Don’t underestimate the loss of play-caller Arthur Smith, who left to be
Atlanta’s coach. But also a big issue is the defense — the Titans were 28th in yards allowed (398.3).
Broncos free-agent watch
The Broncos need help at backup quarterback, running back and all over the defense.
ILB Eric Wilson, Minnesota: It makes sense to look at any Vikings free agent because new Broncos general manager George Paton was previously in Minnesota. A former undrafted free agent, Wilson is young (26), durable (never missed a game), versatile (eight sacks and three interceptions) and productive (122 tackles in ’20).
CB Mike Hilton, Pittsburgh: He played 45% of the Steelers’ defensive snaps and is arguably the league’s best at blitzing from the slot. If the Broncos sign Hilton, they can have the option of keeping Bryce Callahan outside and a top-flight nickel if he breaks down physically.
QB Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago: The second overall pick in 2017 has records of 29-21 (regular season) and 0-2 (playoffs) and the Bears appear ready to let him walk. He would check the box of the Broncos finding an experienced backup if they view Drew Lock as the starter.
QB Andy Dalton, Dallas: Prescott’s injury should force the Cowboys to keep Dalton, the long-time starter in Cincinnati.
The Broncos, though, should explore signing him to a multi-year deal with a value that increases if he plays regularly.
DL Leonard Williams, N.Y. Giants: OK, this is a reach, but if the Broncos want to focus their free-agent effort on a big-ticket player, Williams should top the list.
Key dates
Feb. 23-March 9: Teams can designate players with the franchise or transition tags. Last year, the Broncos used the franchise tag on safety Justin Simmons.
March 15-17: Teams are permitted to negotiate with the agents of other teams’ unrestricted free agents.
March 17 (2 p.m.): The start of the 2021 League Year. Trades become official, unrestricted free agents are allowed to sign contracts with new teams and the deadline for teams to tender restricted free agents.
April 19: Depending on the pandemic, teams with returning head coaches can begin their voluntary offseason program.
April 29-May 1: NFL draft — round 1 (April 29), rounds 2-3 (April 30) and rounds 4-7 (May 1). The Broncos have one pick apiece in rounds 1-6 and three in the seventh.