Taliban closing in on cities
PA NJWA I,
The Taliban have been encroaching on key cities around Afghanistan for months, threatening to drive the country to its breaking point and push the Biden administration into a no-win situation just as the United States’ longest war is supposed to be coming to an end.
Around the northern city of Kunduz, despite the winter’s fierce cold, the Taliban have taken outposts and military bases, using small armed drones to terrorize Afghan troops. In neighboring Pul-i-Khumri, they have seized important highways in a stranglehold of the city, threatening main lifelines to Kabul, the country’s capital.
In the city of Kandahar, a bedrock of historic and political importance and an economic hub for the country’s south, Taliban fighters have pummeled the surrounding districts, and moved closer to taking the provincial capital than they have in more than a decade.
The Taliban’s brazen offensive has put the Biden administration into a dangerous political bind. Under the deal struck by President Donald Trump with the Taliban last year, all foreign troops — including the remaining 2,500 U.S. service members who support Afghanistan’s beleaguered army and security forces — are scheduled to withdraw by May 1, leaving the country in an especially precarious state.
If the Biden administration honors the withdrawal date, officials and analysts fear the Taliban could overwhelm what’s left of the Afghan security forces and take control of major cities such as Kandahar in a push for a complete military victory or a broad surrender by the Afghan government in the ongoing peace negotiations.
But if the United States delays its withdrawal deadline, as a congressionally appointed panel recommended on Feb. 3, the Taliban would likely consider the 2020 deal with the United States void, possibly leading to renewed attacks on U.S. and NATO troops, and potentially drawing the United States deeper into the war to defend Afghan forces, whom the Taliban could still retaliate vigorously against.
“The threat of Taliban military victories, especially in an area as symbolic and strategic as Kandahar, makes it difficult for the Biden administration to swallow the risks of finalizing a troop withdrawal,” said Andrew Watkins, a senior analyst on Afghanistan for the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based conflict resolution organization. “Pulling out might be politically impossible if Kandahar was on the nightly news.”
In Panjwai, a district that neighbors Kandahar city, the low thud of artillery punctuated a recent warm winter afternoon, signaling the Taliban’s proximity to its populated center.
At the edge of the district, a lone police outpost sandbagged into the rock overlooked what was now Taliban territory. One officer’s head was bandaged from a roadside bomb blast, another wore a gauze sling under his uniform, propping up a shoulder wounded from a sniper’s bullet.
“They are still working here; we can’t replace them, because we don’t have enough forces,” said Safiullah Khan, the police officer in charge. “Our commanders steal from our fuel, food and our supply.”
During an offensive in the fall, the Taliban took swathes of territory and then mostly held their ground despite attempts by the Afghan security forces and U.S. airstrikes to dislodge them.
Taliban commanders told tribal officials in the district that the insurgent group deliberately stopped short of taking Panjwai, said Haji Mahmood Noor, the district’s mayor, because they were told to wait and see how the next phase of peace negotiations played out.
To prepare for a possible multipronged attack should the United States stay beyond the May 1 deadline, the Pentagon has requested additional military options — including an increase of U.S. troops or a commitment of more air support from U.S. Central Command, which oversees operations in the Middle East and Afghanistan, according to two U.S. officials. Whether these requests will be granted depends on the Biden administration’s next move, which it is expected to be announced in coming weeks.