The favorites, the Cinderellas and the prop bets to make the tourney interesting
The NCAA Tournament is upon us with 68 teams all vying for a national championship. Need help betting on the Big Dance? The Denver Post sports department has you covered. (Odds via BetMGM)
The five favorites
Gonzaga (1): Since 2004, the perennial contenders have received a top-four seed nine times, yet the Zags have only reached the Final Four twice and the title game once. Always the bridesmaid, never the bride, this could be the year the Zags walk down that aisle with their Division I-best offense led by AP All-Americans Corey Kispert, Drew Timme and Jalen Suggs. Title odds: +200
Baylor (1): The best outsideshooting team in Division I at 41.8% from beyond the arc, the Bears’ high-powered offense is carried by guards Jared Butler, Davion Mitchell and MaCio Teague, who combine for 47.4 points per game. After opening the season with 18 consecutive wins, they’ve gone 4-2 in their past six games, including a loss to Oklahoma State in the Big 12 semifinals. Title odds: +500
Michigan (1): Former Nuggets forward Juwan Howard reached the title game twice during his playing days with the Wolverines, but now he could bring the trophy home in his second year as head coach. Their path to the championship runs through Hunter Dickinson. The 7-foot-1, 255-pound freshman center has been dominant in the post this year. Title odds: +600
Illinois (1): The Fighting Illini are on a hot streak having won seven straight, including a 91-88 overtime win over Ohio State for the Big Ten crown. Junior guard Ayo Dosunmu and sophomore center Kofi Cockburn are among the nation’s most potent one-two punches, combining for 38.3 points and 15.9 rebounds between them. Title odds: +700
Iowa (2): Two words: Luke Garza. The 6-11 senior center is the nation’s third-leading scorer (23.7 points) and leads the Hawkeyes in rebounds (8.8) and blocks (1.7). The only unanimous selection to the AP AllAmerican first team, he is a threat both in the post and beyond the arc (40.7% from 3point land). Title odds: + 1,600
Five Cinderella stories
Georgetown (12): Sorry, Buffs fans, but CU’s first-round matchup is against a team poised for a deep run.
The Hoyas limped into the Big East tournament with a losing record before rattling off four wins to punch their ticket to the Big Dance. Coach Patrick Ewing has his team playing inspired basketball at the right time. They’ve held three of their past four opponents under 60 points. Title odds: +10,000
Southern Cal (6): Don’t be surprised if USC contends in the West Region with two key team ingredients: Star power and a veteran backcourt. Freshman Evan Mobley — the Pac-12 Player of the Year — averaged 16.8 points, 8.6 rebounds and three blocks during the regular season. Senior guard Tahj Eaddy also brings needed experience to the Trojans. Title odds: +3,500
Utah State (11): Utah State was among the last teams to receive an at-large bid, ahead of Mountain West rival Colorado State, and the Aggies will be a tough out. Utah State touts the nation’s No. 8 defense, according to KenPom, and has a force inside with Neemias Queta. The 7-footer averaged 15 points and 10 rebounds per game this season. Title odds: +6,600
North Carolina (8): UNC does not typically belong in the Cinderella category considering the program has won six NCAA Tournament titles during its illustrious hoops history. North Carolina, like many college basketball blue-bloods, struggled this season. But UNC turned things around late and won three of their last four games. Don’t count out any team coached by Roy Williams. Title odds: +5,000
Colgate (14): The Raiders played a condensed season of 15 games due to COVID-19 issues and emerged with only one loss. That makes Colgate an intriguing dark horse, especially with a team 3-point percentage (40%) that ranks tied for No. 3 in the nation. Senior guard Jordan Burns powers the team with 17.1 points and 5.4 assists per game. Title odds: +20,000
* Odds via BetMGM
First-round upset alerts
Winthrop (12) over Villanova (5): Winthrop enters the tournament at 23-1 with the second-best winning percentage (.958) behind only undefeated top-overall seed Gonzaga. Meanwhile, Villanova is without injured starting point guard Collin Gillespie. It all adds up to a big day for the Big South. Line: Winthrop +6.5
Abilene Christian (14) over Texas (3): Abilene Christian forces more turnovers than any team in the country (20.2/ game).
Texas has had issues turning the ball over all season (14.2/ game). That should give the Wildcats ample opportunity for a Lone Star State upset.
Line: Abilene Christian +9
Virginia Tech (10) over Florida (7): Many national basketball analysts believe Virginia Tech is under-seeded after finishing third in the ACC. Florida enters the tournament having lost three of its last four games. That’s all reflected by the odds.
Line: Virginia Tech +1
Ohio (13) over Virginia (4): The majority of Virginia’s team went through a quarantine period that limited practice before its first-round game. Ohio can run up a score quickly with the nation’s 17th-ranked scoring offense (80.9 points/game).
Line: Ohio +7.5
Six prop bets to consider
1. A team from Texas will win the title. The Lone Star State is well represented in Indianapolis with a whopping seven squads making the 68team field. According to Bovada, the odds are even that one of those teams will win the title. Washington (+215) is next, followed by Illinois (+360) and Michigan (+800).
2. Lower-seeded upsets. Who doesn’t love a good upset? Well, maybe the 2018 Virginia Cavaliers. Oddsmaker Bovada has the over-under at nine in terms of how many seeds between Nos. 9-16 will advance into the round of 32.
3. Conference pride. The Pac-12 enters the tournament with five teams (Colorado, Oregon, Oregon State, USC and UCLA) representing. But the odds aren’t good that it’ll be the conference with the most teams remaining by the Elite Eight at +2,500, according to BetMGM. The favorite? The Big Ten at -120.
4. Lucky No. 12. You know the rule for your bracket: Pick at least one No. 12 seed to upset a No. 5 seed. No. 12 seeds have a 50-90 record against No. 5’s. Sportsbetting.com agrees, putting the odds at -400 for at least one upset.
5. Maybe that’s Lucky No.
13. How about the No. 13 seed taking down a No. 4 seed? Sportsbetting.com thinks it’s a good bet with -208 odds.
6. The second when his heart rips in half. Will someone land on the “One Shining Moment” highlight reel with a buzzer-beating, game-winning shot in the first round?
The odds lean toward no at -185, according to sportsbetting.com. But it’s not bad for exactly one (+225) to happen. Looking to be bold? How about six at +4,000?