Power hitter tops Rockies’ wish list
’Tis the season for speculation. And when it comes to the Rockies and what they’ll look like in 2022, there is plenty to speculate about.
After speaking with agents, running some thoughts by general manager Bill Schmidt and consulting with national baseball writers, here is my very early take on how the Rockies’ offseason will play out:
Story time: The Rockies will extend star shortstop Trevor Story an $18.4 million qualifying offer, which he will reject and then proceed to test free agency.
“I’ve always said that winning is at the top for me, and culture and environment,” Story said toward the end of the season. “Obviously geography. There are a bunch of different things that go into it, a lot of those that we will hold close to our vest.”
There are plenty of media types who think Story will be back in a Rockies uniform in 2022. I don’t see that happening.
ESPN’S Buster Olney, who’s very well connected, lists the Rangers, Yankees, Tigers and Mariners as possible landing spots for Story. I would not rule out the Cardinals or Phillies.
Moneyball: The Rockies’ end-of-season, 40-man payroll was $114.4 million, a significant drop from a franchise-record $151.9 million in 2019, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. The pandemic, of course, significantly cut into the team’s ticket revenue in 2020-21.
But the Rockies will have more money to spend in the future.
“We’re going to gain ground in 2022,” team president Greg Feasel said early this month. “And we think we’ll be back to ’18 and ’19 levels in 2023. That’s what the plan is.”
With Story’s $18.5 million coming off the books, the Rockies are already committed to about $100 million for 2022, including paying arbitration-eligible players such as left-hander Kyle Freeland and infielder Ryan Mcmahon.
So how much will the Rockies spend on free agency this offseason? That’s impossible to say at this point, but indications are that they will attempt to land at least two impactful players.
Free-agent targets: Let’s start with Colorado’s needs. It’s no secret that the Rockies must add power to their lineup, most likely in the outfield.
Three players to keep an eye on are Nick Castellanos, Chris Taylor and Michael Conforto. Castellanos, 30, is likely to opt out of the remaining two years and $34 million on his contract with Cincinnati. The competition for him will be fierce and he’ll command big bucks. After all, he’s coming off a season in which he slashed .309/.362/.576 with 34 home runs.
But keep this in mind. A banner class of free-agent shortstops is going to gobble up a lot of money, meaning the Rockies might be in the running for Castellanos.
While an outfielder appears to be Colorado’s No. 1 target, it is also going to explore the market for middle infielders, relief pitchers and possibly even a starting pitcher.
Shades of Gray: The Rockies made a contract offer to right-hander Jon Gray before the end of the season, hoping he might accept it before becoming a free agent. The offer was rejected, but that doesn’t mean Gray won’t re-sign with Colorado. His desire to remain with the Rockies is genuine, but he owes it to himself to explore the market, and, perhaps, have some leverage for a better deal with Colorado.
Gray, who made $6 million in 2021, is likely seeking a three- or four-year deal at about $9 million-$10 million a season. For comparison’s sake, the Rockies recently gave righthander Antonio Senzatela a five-year contract extension worth $50.5 million.
Short answers: Story’s departure will leave a big hole at shortstop. Brendan Rodgers, who had a breakout season (.284 average, .798 OPS, 15 homers in 102 games), wants the job. He might get it, but if the Rockies can find a slick-fielding shortstop, Rodgers would remain at second base where many in the organization believe he’s better suited. Rodgers, despite some media speculation, is not a trade candidate.