What we’ve learned in the first seven games
Coaches, regardless of the level or sport, are in the business of selling the glass as half full. But there was no mistaking the demeanor of Broncos coach Vic Fangio as he stood at the podium late Friday afternoon, less than 24 hours after Cleveland handed his team a fourth consecutive loss, a 17-14 eyesore that was far more one-sided than the score suggested.
Fangio was matter-of-fact and humbled as he answered questions. He knows the deal. Seven games into his third year, the Broncos are still spinning their wheels. They are under .500 — again. They are battling to end a long losing streak — again. And they are struggling to score — again. Making the situation more concerning is the area of Fangio’s expertise (defense) has collapsed.
The Broncos are 3-4 and here are four things we’ve learned:
1. Their defense is broken.
Before the season, I predicted the Broncos would finish 7-10, but would rank fourth in scoring defense and have 25 takeaways and 51 sacks. The rationale: The defense would be elite and be let down by a plodding offense.
Oops. The Broncos rank second at 18.1 points per game, but over the last four games, they have allowed 25.3. They aren’t getting takeaways (one in the last four games) and have only 15 total sacks.
I grant the losses of inside linebackers Josey Jewell and Alexander Johnson for the season and outside linebacker Bradley Chubb indefinitely. But the secondary has remained largely healthy and hasn’t impressed. Same for the defensive line.
During the 0-4 streak, the Broncos have allowed eight drives of at least 10 plays and 12 of at least 75 yards.
I asked Fangio what are his options are to get the defense out of a rut.
“There’s three things you can do,” he said. “One — line-up changes. Two — simplify. Or three — when you have a bunch of guys go down, re-create. The ‘re-creates’ are usually short-lived with success. We just have to do (what) we do better.”
2. They don’t make enough big plays offensively.
Down 17-7 Thursday night, the Broncos started at their 20-yard line with 11:25 remaining. They required 17 plays to finally reach the end zone. Their longest gain was 10 yards. They needed to convert three third-down plays and one fourth-down.
The more plays a team is forced to call, the more chance they will make a mistake.
“We still had timeouts,” quarterback Teddy Bridgewater said. “You have a sense of urgency, but at the same time, the important thing is just score. That’s what we did. If we were down by more points, we probably would have been (playing) more (up) tempo to try and get down there faster.”
The rub is the Broncos’ defense isn’t stopping anybody these days and Cleveland ran out the final 5:12.
Against the Browns, the Broncos had a season-low one explosive play (pass of at least 16 yards/run of at least 12 yards) —
Courtland Sutton’s one-handed 31-yard catch.
For the season, the Broncos have 39 explosive plays (29 passes/11 rushes).
3. The four-man pass rush isn’t working.
The plan entering the season was for Chubb and Von Miller to win off the edges and the interior linemen to create a push. The four-man rush would allow Fangio to drop seven into coverage to play man outside with his cornerbacks and have his inside linebackers take away the shallow crossing routes.
But not only are the Broncos averaging a shade over two sacks per game (15 in seven), Fangio is having to call more pressures. Six of the 15 sacks came when rushing five or more players.
Through seven games, the Broncos are rushing at least five players on 34.6% of the opponent’s drop-backs compared with 22.9% in 2019 and 27.9% last year per The Denver Post’s game charting. Rushing more players leaves open grass downfield.
“We have to do a better job against the run to get more pass-rush opportunities,” Fangio said. “(Cleveland) had six third-and1s (and converted all of them). Those aren’t ideal pass-rush situations. When you’re struggling against the run, that has an avalanche effect on everything and pass rush is one of them.”
4. The offense is particularly bad in the first half.
Loathe to change things for the sake of change? The coaches should consider that route to kick-start their slow starts.
The Broncos have 36 first-half drives this year and have scored six touchdowns and five field goals, a score rate of 30.6%. During their four-game skid, they have scored only 20 first-half points. As we know, this offense isn’t built to chase the scoreboard.
Take the football when winning the toss. Throw in some tempo to keep the opponent in the same defensive personnel. Give running back Javonte Williams the first series. Heck, maybe a flea-flicker.
A way to spark the Broncos’ defense might be giving them an early lead.
The Broncos will be favored in home games against Washington (Week 8) and Philadelphia (Week 10) and an underdog at Dallas (Week 9). Take care of their business and they will enter the bye at 5-5. But the climb already looks too steep.