New $3.6M project will study Front Range climate change impact

Scientists from the University of Colorado, the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, the National Center for Atmospheric Research and other institutions will study the impacts of climate change and the pressure of people on Front Range ecosystems through a new five-year, $3.6 million grant from the National Science Foundation.

Researchers also will study what Front Range communities value most about the great outdoors, whether it’s cool forests to hike in during the heat of summer, clear streams in which to fish or land that supports industries such as livestock and forestry.

The project’s goal is to combine the physical science of climate change and the social science of community values to understand how land managers can make better decisions when it comes to stewardship of Colorado’s public lands, said lead investigator Keith Musselman, a research associate at INSTAAR.

“If we can overlap public values with management considerations and bring science to bear on how and when that is going to change, that’s the goal,” Musselman said.

The research also aims to identify places of “climate change refugia,” or areas that have been resilient to the impacts of climate change so far.

“There will likely be places that continue to provide value this century and those potentially could be places we put more resources into to protect from fire and insect outbreaks, to protect water sources and public access,” Musselman said. “Whereas if a place is currently being degraded and is probably not recoverable — those places may not be places we want to pour all of our resources into.”

While Musselman and other researchers dive into the physical science, CU scientist Amanda Carrico, director of the Center for Sustainable Landscapes and Communities, and her colleagues will develop and conduct research into what Front Range residents value about their natural surroundings.

“We’re hoping to use scientific processes to see what people’s values are, what do people care about and what do they want to see moving forward,” Carrico said.

The project will use a computer model of Earth systems first developed for tropical regions and rework it for the Rocky Mountains to simulate the growth and death of trees, how groundwater connects to surface water and more.

The redesigned model will include data collected at the Mountain Research Station near Niwot Ridge, where a tram will travel a 300- to 400-foot track collecting information on different ecosystems and their sunlight, wind, temperature and water. By collecting data from different ecosystems and different elevations, Musselman said, the goal is to be able to apply the computer model to the entire Front Range.