THE BATTLE FOR CD-8
How to win or lose the most competitive congressional district in America
Colorado’s new congressional district is top of mind for politicos around the country and for good reason — it could be the most competitive race in the country as the Centennial State looks to add an 8th member of Congress.
The Colorado Supreme Court unanimously approved the map created by the independent redistricting commission, and it largely protects Colorado’s incumbents: four Democrats and three Republicans. It also created one of the most competitive new congressional seats in the country in a state where Joe Biden won by 13 points in 2020.
The Cook Political Report, an independent newsletter that analyzes every race across the country, rates the new 8th CD as a “Republican Toss Up.” Given the Democrats’ razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives, this ultra-competitive seat could decide which party controls the
House in 2022.
Democrats have been upset that the map didn’t depict Colorado’s move to the left over the last few election cycles. In other words, they wanted a safe blue seat to occupy Colorado’s newest congressional district. But they have no one to blame but themselves, having supported Amendment Y, the successful legislatively referred 2018 ballot issue that gave away their power to draw congressional maps to the newly created independent commission, whose membership consists of four Democrats, four Republicans and four unaffiliated voters.
Democrats would clearly have gerrymandered the maps to achieve at least a 6-2 advantage. Instead, they face the prospect of having four congressional Democrats and four Republicans serve in Congress next cycle in an increasingly blue state.
The key to winning this seat will be for the two major political parties to get out of their own way so that they can nominate a moderate candidate. If either party goes too far to the left or too far to the right, they will likely lose this race.
The 8th CD with a population of
The 8th CD is the most heavily Hispanic (38.5%) among all of Colorado’s congressional districts.
approximately 721,714, runs alongside the I-25 corridor north of Denver and primarily consists of the urban and suburban portions of Adams and Weld Counties. Notably, 456,478 Adams County residents – 87.85% of the county’s population – are represented in the new district as are Commerce City, Thornton, Northglenn, Brighton, Johnstown, and Greeley.
The combination of Adams and Weld Counties translates to a district that has a mere 2.8% Democrat advantage (28.2% Democrat v. 25.4% Republican) among active registered voters in the district. Forty-four percent of the district voters are unaffiliated.
However, data from the redistricting commission shows an even smaller advantage. Election results from eight statewide elections between 2016 and 2020 show Democrats only enjoy a 1.3% advantage over Republicans in the new district.
Making matters worse for Democrats, off-year election cycles strongly benefit the party that doesn’t hold the office of the president. President Biden’s current favorability ratings and the rise of inflation, are exacerbating this national historical problem. And, given the results of the most recent elections in Virginia and New Jersey, Republicans are highly energized.
The 8th CD is the most heavily Hispanic (38.5%) among all of Colorado’s congressional districts. By 2030, the Colorado State Demographer anticipates Adams County’s Hispanic community will grow by 30% whereas Weld County’s Hispanic population will increase by 50%.
Four high-profile candidates have formally entered the race illustrating a level of diversity and breadth of politicians that is missing in most congressional races.
State Rep. Yadira Caraveo is an Adams County Democrat that is in her second term in the state House. Caraveo, a pediatrician, is considered a progressive member of her caucus and has sponsored legislation ranging from rewriting Colorado’s oil and gas regulations to regulating marijuana concentrate products.
Democrat Chaz Tedesco, was the second Hispanic to announce his candidacy. Tedesco, a Navy veteran, and Adams County Commissioner is expected to garner significant support from labor and blue-collar workers. Tedesco has the support of Nuestro PAC, a super PAC launched by political consultant Chuck Rocha, who ran Sen. Bernie Sanders’ Latino outreach strategy in the 2020 Democratic primaries.
Both candidates may struggle to shed the Bernie Sanders factor. Tedesco is perceived as more moderate than Caraveo, but having the support of the Sanders apparatus is a cause for concern. Meanwhile, the challenge for Caraveo is to overcome some of the major industry groups she has agitated and move to the middle. One of her Republican opponents has called her a “hard-core socialist” and another has said she has more in common with Bernie Sanders than the people of Adams and Weld counties. The Sanders agenda is a dog that won’t hunt in the 8th.
The most significant name in the Republican primary so far is state Sen. Barb Kirkmeyer, a five-term Weld County commissioner who is now serving her first term in the Colorado State Senate. Kirkmeyer, a conservative, has read the Colorado political tea leaves, and astutely said earlier this week said that the 2020 election was legitimate.
Conservative Lori Saine, a controversial former legislator and current Weld County Commissioner has also entered the race. She was arrested once for forgetting a loaded handgun in her carry-on luggage at DIA and once said on the floor of the Colorado House that white people were lynched in equal numbers to Black Americans during the period of Reconstruction, claiming they were persecuted for being Republican. Unless Republicans are insane and want to run a Boebert-type firebrand candidate in a moderate seat, Saine’s chances are very slim.
However, the field is not settled yet.
State Senator John Cooke (R-district 13), is reportedly exploring a run. Cooke is the assistant minority leader of the Colorado Senate Republicans’ caucus and the former Weld County sheriff. Cooke is politically savvy and has a strong record on business and law enforcement-related issues. He would be a formidable candidate if he decides to enter the race.
If choosing a moderate candidate is the winning general election criteria, state Sen. Kevin Priola is perhaps the one potential candidate that Democrats should fear the most.
Priola, a small business owner, is widely viewed as the most moderate member of the Colorado General Assembly. Priola won election to his second term in 2020 in a district that favors Democrats. He has voted with Democrats on bipartisan legislation such as the clean energy transition and did not vocally support former President Donald Trump before the 2020 election. Should he run, however, Priola will likely face difficult opposition from conservatives in his party primary.
Will Republicans force their candidates to pledge allegiance to Donald Trump and the Big Lie political litmus test? Or, will they let them speak to general election voters about issues that matter?
Can Democrats nominate moderate, business-friendly candidates who don’t espouse politically inane ideas like defunding the police? Suffice it to say, there is no room for an Aoc-like candidate in this district.
The answer to these questions will likely determine the outcome of the CD8 race.
One thing is for sure: neither party can afford to win the primary battle and lose the election war.