Is Denver in decline or a boom? 2023 election will tell

Denver is a city of two images. One represents long-term decline. The other portrays continuous growth, evolution and investment of billions in innovative public-private ventures. Neither image conclusively represents Denver. The election in spring 2023 will decide which view dominates the public’s understanding of the city’s future.

The picture of decline often is painted using quality-of-life issues, most dramatically with scenes of homeless encampments on public spaces and sidewalks. The recent glaring incident was Civic Center’s shutdown after it was deemed a danger to its inhabitants and all Denverites.

Another visual drawing the public’s attention was the Black Lives Matter demonstrations after George Floyd was murdered, which left the state Capitol’s west side a vandalized monument for several months in summer 2020. It was another test in a tense period for people dealing with COVID-19 restrictions and a heated presidential election. The damaged Capitol became emblematic of Denver. Many city activists then joined in criticizing the police and promoting new rules, oversight and threats of defunding. Much of this happened as crime rates rose. Denver had become a “Portland,” a city in decline for many observers.

The theme of Denver as failing was reinforced for some by the politics and priorities that had shifted significantly to the left in the past decade. Denver has long been a predominately Democratic city, giving 62% of its vote to Al Gore in 2000, but the past decade’s influx of new voters increased the Democratic margin to 80% for Joe Biden in 2020. Moderate Democrats are becoming rare. In addition, Denver was becoming visibly less orderly and more polarized, especially among the mayor, City Council and many activist groups.

Although Denver’s quality of life, government discord and business environment have received considerable criticism during the past few years, major investments continue by the city, its voters, business and nonprofit organizations. In the most recent election, while voters said no to a $190 million arena, they said yes to $260 million in proposed infrastructure improvements for municipal and cultural buildings, housing for low-income and unhoused residents, parks and recreation, and mobility. The latest tranche is just a part of the more than $1.5 billion in infrastructure bonds since 2007.

The city recently partnered with private donors to build a $170 million art museum addition. Meanwhile, private investors are planning a $1 billion mixed-use development west of the Cherry Creek mall; the city along with the airlines that use DIA have just committed an additional $700 million in bonds to improve the airport, and the justannounced Johnson and Wales University conversion blends nonprofits and the private sector with government, schools and housing. Denver’s record for infrastructure investments is superior to most cities of a comparable size, and voters have been supportive.

Denver has undergone periods when it was seen as a failed city before. The late 1970s and 1980s were difficult periods. Denver’s population declined by more than 40,000, or 10% — most leaving for the suburbs — because of a weak economy, school busing and general exiting from central cities nationwide. But Denver’s current experience is just the opposite. It added 115,000 people during the past decade, and private entrepreneurship is producing activity within Denver, including South Broadway, 32nd and Tennyson, downtown, Larimer and Blake, Brighton Boulevard and Pearl Street. These and other hot spots mostly are driven by the young people who have moved here recently.

Additionally, Denver’s economy didn’t suffer significantly in the brief 2020 recession. Sales tax revenue was off 3% but was barely noticed compared to the 10% drop in the Great Recession of 2009. Revenue is up a startling 18% so far this year. While Denver has flaws, it’s not a failed city by most criteria.

Its attraction as a vibrant and livable city has reflected strong mayoral leadership — Federico Peña, Wellington Webb, John Hickenlooper and now Michael

Hancock. Each was aware of failures of many older central cities. Each remained focused on public and private investment to enhance economic growth and quality of life. After considerable competition and conflict, Denver’s leaders managed to gather a consensus around investment in its citizens and the future. Convention centers, sports stadiums, shopping districts and cultural facilities have received public dollars that often matched the private dollars being spent.

As Denver approaches the next mayor’s election, which picture will come into focus: the polarized politics that have characterized the recent past or a consensus among the major urban stakeholders on how to move Denver forward?

Whatever the politics running up to spring 2023 city elections produces, it will reveal the leading image of Denver.

Floyd Ciruli is a pollster, political analyst and director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Denver.

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