Runoff forecast to be below normal

COUNTY » The late-winter blast sweeping through the Roaring Fork River basin is boosting the snowpack to near average, but runoff is still expected to fall short this spring and early summer.

The high country received nearly a foot of snow by Tuesday evening and more fell overnight into Wednesday.

“Snowpack in the Roaring Fork basin was running slightly above average but has dropped back down to average for this date,” Don Meyer, senior water resources engineer with the Colorado River District, said Monday as the storm was cranking up. “I don’t think this incoming storm will bring us back up above the peak (snowpack) to date, but time will tell.”

The snowpack for the watershed overall — the main stem of the Roaring Fork as well as the Crystal and Fryingpan rivers — was 98.6% of median as of April 1, according to the U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service.

“(The Roaring Fork basin) fared rather well overall,” said Karl Wetlaufer, a hydrologist with the NRCS. “It was much better than much of the state.”

Snowpack ranged from 86% of median at the Independence Pass site to 112% at the Ivanhoe site at the Fryingpan River headwaters and 113% at Schofield Pass at the headwaters of the Crystal River.

The Upper Colorado River basin as a whole was at only 94% of median. Most other major river basins in Colorado were lower.

Meyer said this winter saw a typical weather pattern for a La Niña year. More snow tends to fall in the northern part of the state, less in the south, he said.

Aspen and the Central Mountains can go either way.

It was feast or famine for long stretches of the winter for Aspen. The season started dry, and then a strong storm cycle dumped snow across the region starting around Christmas and lasting into early January, Wetlaufer noted.

That was followed by a dry spell that lasted into February. The Roaring Fork watershed was among a part of the state that fared well with snowfall during the last half of February and through March. However, warm temperatures accelerated melting of the snowpack about two to three weeks earlier than usual, Wetlaufer said.

Snowfall at Aspen Mountain, Aspen Highlands and Snowmass was well above average during March, according to micro-forecasting service aspenweather.com. Snowmass recorded 72 inches of snow during the month — 131% of the average of 55 inches.

Aspen Highlands collected 68 inches during March. That was 124% of the average of 55 inches.

Aspen Mountain reaped 65 inches compared with an average of 49 inches.