Finland and Sweden draw closer to NATO

BRUSSELS » Even before his invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin of Russia had warned Sweden and Finland of “retaliation” should they join NATO. It was, after all, Ukraine’s desire to join the alliance that he cited time and again as provocation for his war.

But if his invasion of Ukraine has succeeded at anything so far, it has been to drive the militarily nonaligned Nordic countries into the arms of NATO as Russian threats and aggression heighten security concerns and force them to choose sides.

In a rapid response to Russia’s invasion — and despite Putin’s threat of “serious political and military consequences” — Finland and Sweden are now seriously debating applications for membership in the alliance and widely are expected to join.

Their accession would be another example of the counterproductive results of Putin’s war.

Instead of crushing Ukrainian nationalism, he has enhanced it. Instead of weakening the transAtlantic alliance, he has solidified it. Instead of dividing NATO and blocking its growth, he has united it.

“With the contours of European security irrevocably altered since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the direction of thinking in both countries — especially Finland — is getting clearer by the day,” wrote Anna Wieslander and Christopher Skaluba of the Atlantic Council.

At a joint news conference in Stockholm on Wednesday, Prime Minister Sanna Marin of Finland said a decision on whether to apply for membership would be made “within weeks” as her government submitted a document to inform parliamentary debate on the issue.

“There are, of course, pros and cons with being a member of NATO, as there are pros and cons of other security choices,” her Swedish counterpart, Magdelena Andersson, said. But, she added, “I see no point in delaying this analysis or the process” over whether to join.

NATO officials are publicly discreet, saying only that the alliance has an open-door policy and any country that wishes to join can ask for an invitation.

But even a speedy application process could take a year, raising concerns that the two countries would be vulnerable to Russia in the interim if Putin saw NATO membership for them as a provocation — much as he did with Ukraine.

So already there is a serious debate inside the alliance about what kind of security guarantees could be provided to Finland and Sweden in the period before ratification, to try to ensure that any adversary — read Russia — did not take advantage of the interim before the two countries were part of NATO and could benefit from its promise of collective defense.

Sweden and Finland are members of the European Union and have a strong partnership with NATO, participating in military exercises and even strategic and operational planning.

But Finland, with its long border with Russia, famously survived the Cold War as an independent and unoccupied democracy by studiously hewing to neutrality, something some have suggested for Ukraine. Finland has sided openly with the West since the Soviet Union collapsed, although it has kept, like Sweden, a policy of military nonalignment.

Putin’s invasion has led to a head-spinning turnaround in public opinion in Finland in favor of joining the alliance.

Led quietly by its president, Sauli Niinisto, Finland is clearing the path toward NATO membership for a more reluctant Sweden.