Would you rather have Wilson or Herbert as your quarterback?
Kiz: From the moment the Broncos acquired Russell Wilson in a blockbuster trade to be their starting quarterback, I’ve had a beef with pro and armchair analysts alike. Everybody wants to rank the Qb-rich AFC West, and almost everywhere I look, what’s the pecking order I see? No. 1: Patrick Mahomes; No. 2: Justin Herbert; No. 3: Wilson; and No. 4: Derek Carr. OK, I get Mahomes being ranked first. But is Herbert really better than Wilson? Please, explain that logic to me.
O’halloran: People I’ve talked to in the league have ranked the quarterbacks just like Kiz did and the teams as Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers and Raiders. To me, Herbert/wilson is a coin flip. If I had to defend the Justin-over-russ argument, I would start and end with the long-game view (Herbert is nine years younger) and sack avoidance. Making the Russ-over-justin case is far easier because of the track record of regular season and postseason success. Who do you want as your quarterback with two minutes remaining, down by three or seven points and starting at their 25-yard line? Right now, that’s Wilson.
Kiz: If we’re casting the part of quarterback in a Hollywood movie, I could understand taking Herbert over Wilson. But on the football field? No way. Yes, Herbert is younger and has great potential. So let’s talk about potential. Which guy showed more promise early? After two NFL seasons, Herbert has passed for 69 touchdowns, earned a 97.9 passer rating and produced a 15-17 record. After two seasons, Wilson owned 52 touchdown passes, a 100.6 passer rating and a 24-8 record (not to mention a Super Bowl ring, as Broncos fans might recall).
O’halloran: Fair points and I will take it one step further. Choosing Herbert over Wilson, most would say something like, “Well, Wilson is slowing down.” Not really. In the last two years, Wilson is 18-12 with 65 touchdowns and 19 interceptions; he threw 40 touchdowns just two years ago. Compare that to Herbert’s aforementioned numbers of a 15-17 record, 69 touchdowns and 25 interceptions. The Broncos are rightly banking on Wilson having a terrific second act to his career in a new locale.
Kiz: In a league where quarterbacks rule, the first way to handicap the winner of any game is to determine which team has the better leader of its offense. I don’t care if the Broncos play the Chargers in Denver, Los Angeles or on the surface of Mars in 2022, Denver has more than a fighting chance to beat the Chargers, because Wilson is a proven winner. And Herbert is not. Wilson beats Herbert in the most important quarterback quality of them all: X-factor. Herbert better than Wilson? Maybe in three years. But right now? Nope.
O’halloran: The X-factor was notable last week in just listening to Wilson’s new teammates talk about his career, his play-making ability and his presence. In times of adversity, the Broncos believe No. 3 will rally them. The other reasons why Wilson should get the immediate edge over Herbert: The Broncos have a more experienced play-caller (Nathaniel Hackett), the better true running back (Javonte Williams) and more receiver depth.