Inside Paton’s draft process
Broncos’ GM moves to his own grading scale for 2nd draft
During the course of a news conference last week to discuss the NFL draft, Broncos general manager George Paton slipped into a moment of scout-speak.
“The 1.30s, the 1.33s — if there are 20 players (in that range), let’s stack them,” he said.
In that instant, the number value placed on draft prospects by the Broncos was revealed and provided a peek behind the curtain of how Paton and his staff will conduct their draft Friday (scheduled for three picks) and Saturday (scheduled for six picks).
How many players are deemed draft-worthy by the Broncos or are off the board because of character and/or injury concerns? How often does Paton assign a top grade to a prospect? How did he develop the grading scale he introduced to the organization’s scouts last summer and the new coaching staff this winter?
Sitting in a downtown Indianapolis hotel coffee shop in early March between formal scouting combine interviews — and on the cusp of completing the trade for quarterback Russell Wilson — Paton was asked by The Denver Post about his grading scale.
“It’s hard to get into. … It’s pretty complicated. … It can get complex,” he said.
During multiple interviews since then, Paton tried to explain it anyway and also reflected on his second draft running the Broncos.
“A lot smoother,” he said. “I know the strength of our scouts and what they evaluate best and the same with the coaches. It’s great sitting in a room and talking about players and the ‘ why’ and the ‘how.’ How does the player fit and why is he good for us?”
1.00-1.99
Paton used John Elway’s grading system last year, which is common for new general managers who arrive after the scouts have started writing reports and assigning grades. Paton said his structure of grading is a “little different,” than the one implemented by Elway.
The Paton-broncos scale is
1.00-1.99. Period.
Paton was the Miami Dolphins’ director of pro personnel in 2005 when coach Nick Saban was hired and introduced his scale.
“Nick had known one grading scale when he was in Cleveland (with coach Bill Belichick) and he
wanted to use that,” Paton said. “We had to call over to some of the old guys (in the Brownsturned-baltimore front office) to piece it together. It’s not exactly that (currently).”
After two years, Saban departed to Alabama and Paton followed Rick Spielman to Minnesota. Spielman and Paton fine-turned the system from 2006-20. The Vikings would constantly tinker with the variables and processes to find the right mix of athletic ability, scheme fit and character.
A 1.00 is the best possible grade a player can get and is rarely issued.
“The top guy in a draft is typically a 1.20,” Paton said. “There have been a few above that — the highest grades have been a 1.10 or 1.12 — guys you think are can’tmiss, All-pro guys.”
A 1.99 is the lowest possible grade. Those players won’t be Broncos either because of an extensive medical history or they lack the desired character.
“Those are ‘no-takes,’” Paton said. “They’re done and off your board. We used to call them ‘ red dots’ in Minnesota, but we don’t here. That’s somebody we don’t want in our building.”
Last week, Paton estimated the Broncos had taken 40 to 50 prospects off their board entirely, “but maybe we resurrect some of them (with injury issues) after our medical meetings. We gave (head athletic trainer) Vince (Garcia) and the doctors a list of borderline players (to look at).”
Paton provided an example of the scale’s usage: The Broncos initially use a 1.30 grade on a player, but the grade slips to 1.39 if a player isn’t the best scheme fit or is still rehabilitating from an injury.
“It means you won’t take them in that round, but maybe later,” he said.
Last Friday, Paton said the Broncos had “right around 165170” players with draft-worthy grades, a list that could fluctuate after the final medical meetings this week.
To Paton’s aforementioned comment about 20 players in the range of 1.30-1.33. He uses the word “cluster” to describe the names they are considering with each pick.
Using the 64th selection as a guide: Let’s say the Broncos have stacked 20 players as possibilities. If only 10 are gone as their turn approaches, a trade-down could be in the offing because they are confident one or more of those 10 players will still be available 5-7 picks later.
Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett has received a crash course in the Broncos’ procedures since being hired in late January.
“I definitely have a cheat sheet,” he said with a laugh. “Right when I think I’ve figured (the scale) out, I get a little confused, but I’ve got George next to me the whole time so I’m like, ‘You gave him a what? Wait, OK, I’m back.’
“In the end, it’s a big draft board and you know when somebody is ahead of somebody else.”
Finalizing the board
The Broncos set their draft board initially in early-to-mid February, but did not include the new coaching staff’s grades.
“It will change a little bit,” Paton said in March. “One, you get the answers to the test with the physical (testing) and all the other information we put into the bucket. That will tweak it. If a cornerback runs 4.65 (in the 40), he’s going to fall. Guys will fall, guys will rise. The top guys won’t change a whole lot.”
Paton was asked if the new coaching staff wants a different type of player to fit their systems and therefore, the board changes.
“They have on offense a little bit,” Paton said in March. “Some of the o-linemen (are being looked at) with more of an emphasis on athletic ability more than power. I would say on defense, because it’s a similar scheme (to former coach Vic Fangio), it’s still athletic ability.”
Each NFL team is permitted 45 “formal” combine meetings that last a maximum of 18 minutes and the Broncos used each slot. Also in Indianapolis, area/regional scouts and position coaches conducted dozens of “informal” interviews with prospects.
The Broncos completed the blockbuster trade for Wilson on March 8, which shifted the staff’s focus toward the end of the second round, but they still graded the top players, including quarterbacks.
“You don’t know what’s going to happen in three years, four years, five years,” Paton told reporters. “Maybe one of those guys are available. You want to have the right evaluation and all of the background.”
The Broncos started their final draft meetings on April 4. All the while, Paton estimated the team used around 23 of their 30 allotted pre-draft visits, when a player can travel to the team facility. In addition, position coaches have conducted more Zoom interviews.
In the draft meetings, they discussed the required traits for every position, like nickel back (smart, tough, short-area quickness), inside linebacker (speed and range), safety (can play close to the line and the deep middle) and offensive linemen (capable of getting on the move to block the outside zone play).
The final — and arguably, most thorough and important — step is setting the board and the process becomes microscopic.
“We’ll have group studies if we might have a cluster to sort out,” Paton said. “We’ll watch them back-to-back-to-back and get into the nitty gritty of man coverage and zone coverage, run game, third down — just whatever. We’ll dig into the players and when that’s done, the hay will be in the barn.”
The Broncos spent Thursday waiting to put their plan into action Friday night.
“This is the best time of the year other than the season,” Paton said. “We really enjoy it.”