Seven lessons Democrats need to learn — fast

We all make mistakes; the question is, do we learn from them? Over the past couple of years people on the left side of the political and cultural spectrum have made their share. These have contributed to the Democrats’ extremely bleak political prospects going into the midterms. Far worse, it is now quite plausible that Donald Trump could win in 2024.

If we’re going to prevent that kind of catastrophe, it might be a good idea to learn a few relevant lessons:

It is possible to overstimulate the economy. Many progressives persuasively argued that Barack Obama didn’t go big enough to stimulate the economy after the financial crisis. It appears the U.S. has now gone too big. Inflation is at a 40-year high. Real wages have fallen.

Much of the inflation is being driven by global energy and supply-chain issues. But, at 8.5%, inflation in America is a lot higher than in, say, Europe. Some economists estimate that the Democrats’ $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan added 2 to 4 percentage points to the U.S. inflation rate.

Law and order is not just a racist dog whistle. Yes, from George Wallace to Donald Trump that rhetoric has been used as a dog whistle. Yes, every discussion of crime and policing needs to include the outrageous racial disparities that permeate the system. At the same time, it is true that the first job of government is to establish order so people can feel secure. Democrats do not have an effective anti-crime posture at a time when crime is surging.

Don’t politicize everything. A Washington POST-ABC News poll in 2006 found that voters trusted Democrats over Republicans to do a better job handling education by more than 20 points. When the POST-ABC poll asked about the issue in November, the advantage was down to 3 points. Part of the drop is probably the teacher unions’ preference to keep schools closed during the pandemic, part may be the attacks by some progressives on magnet schools and gifted programs, part may be the perception that progressives care more about their cultural agenda than actual education. Republicans have politicized education, too, but for some reason it seems to work for them while it doesn’t for Democrats.

Border security is not just a Republican talking point. During one of the Democratic presidential primary debates in 2019, almost all candidates onstage backed the idea of decriminalizing unauthorized border crossings. That sent the signal that the Democratic Party had shifted significantly to the left on immigration. Today, 59% of voters believe that the U.S. has an “effectively” open border.

Joe Biden never swooned for decriminalization the way many of his opponents did, but he has not yet found a policy that advances progressive goals while assuaging the concerns of border state voters.

People of color is not a thing. It was always odd to create a group identity that covered a vast majority of humanity. In this country the phrase “people of color” sometimes covers over a wide array of ethnic experiences. It contributes to a simplistic oppressor/oppressed narrative in which white Republicans are on one side and POC are supposed to be on the other. That made it harder to anticipate that Trump would make the impressive gains among Hispanics in 2020 that he did. Hispanics still lean Democratic, 48% to 23%, according to a recent Icr-miami poll.

Deficits do matter. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates the government will spend an average of $545 billion a year paying interest on the national debt over the next nine years. If interest rates rise 2 percentage points above the Congressional Budget Office’s projections, average annual interest costs will increase by $375 billion. That burden will crowd out spending on all other programs.

The New Deal happened once. Year after year, Democrats imagine that if they can hand people checks and benefits, they will be rewarded with votes, allowing them to build a dominant majority coalition. It’s not that simple. I enthusiastically supported many of these policies, but we live in an age in which culture, values and identity issues drive politics at least as much as policy.