Grain ready to go; ships are not
Shipping companies are not rushing to export millions of tons of grain trapped in Ukraine, despite a breakthrough deal to provide safe corridors through the Black Sea. That is because explosive mines are drifting in the waters, ship owners are assessing the risks and many still have questions over how the deal will unfold.
The complexities of the agreement have set off a slow, cautious start, but it’s only good for 120 days — and the clock began ticking last week.
The goal over the next four months is to get 20 million tons of grain out of three Ukrainian sea ports blocked since Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion. That provides time for about four to five large bulk carriers per day to transport grain from the ports to millions of impoverished people worldwide facing hunger.
It also provides ample time for things to go awry. Only hours after the signing Friday, Russian missiles struck Ukraine’s port of Odesa — one of those included in the agreement.
Another key element of the deal offers assurances that shipping and insurers carrying Russian grain and fertilizer will not get caught in the wider net of Western sanctions. But the agreement brokered by Turkey and the U.N. is running up against the reality of how difficult and risky the pact will be to carry out.
“We have to work very hard to now understand the detail of how this is going to work practically,” said Guy Platten, secretary-general of the International Chamber of Shipping, representing national ship owners associations that account for about 80% of the world’s merchant fleet.
“Can we make sure and guarantee the safety of the crews? What’s going to happen with the mines and the minefields, as well? So lots of uncertainty and unknowns at the moment,” he said.
Getting wheat and other food out is critical to farmers in Ukraine, who are running out of storage capacity amid a new harvest. Those grains are vital to millions of people in Africa, parts of the Middle East and South Asia, who are already facing food shortages and, in some cases, famine.
Ukraine and Russia are key global suppliers of wheat, barley, corn and sunflower oil, with fighting in the Black Sea region, known as the “breadbasket of the world,” pushing up food prices, threatening political stability in developing nations and leading countries to ban some food exports, worsening the crisis.
U.N. humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths says work at the newly opened Joint Coordination Center in Istanbul overseeing the export deal is “nonstop with the aim of seeing the shipments heading out of Ukrainian ports quickly, safely and effectively.”
He said Frederick Kenney Jr., director of legal and external affairs at the International Maritime Organization and a retired U.S. Coast Guard rear admiral and judge advocate, is leading the U.N.’S efforts to get the grain deal up and running.
The deal stipulates that Russia and Ukraine will provide “maximum assurances” for ships that brave the journey through the Black Sea to the Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny.
“The primary risk that’s faced is obviously going to be mines,” said Munro Anderson, head of intelligence and a founding partner at Dryad. The maritime security advisory company is working with insurers and brokers to assess the risks that ships could face along the route as sea mines laid by Ukraine to deter Russia are drifting.
Turkey’s defense minister on Wednesday said demining the waters was not required immediately, but that could change.
Ukrainian officials have expressed hope that exports could resume from one port within days, but they also said it could take two weeks for all three to become operational again. Experts in Ukraine are working on determining safe routes for ships.