If Mahomes is new Brady, Payton’s success vs. Brady is good, right?
KEELER >> Hold or no hold, Patrick Mahomes just pulled that off on one ankle. The Chiefs are giving off ‘97/’98 John Elway vibes right now — only their Elway is just 27 years old and has several more seasons at his peak. Super Bowl XLVII was one of those long, frustrated exhales for Broncos Country as they watched Kansas City officially become an NFL dynasty despite Vic Fangio’s (chuckle) “best” (guffaw) efforts as a “freelance consultant” for Philly. Mahomes took one step closer to becoming the Tom Brady of millennials, but maybe that “Brady” part should give Broncos fans a little solace. Fun fact: TB12 was less than GOAT against new Denver coach Sean Payton, putting up a 3-5 record lifetime and just 1- 4 (0- 4 regular season) against Payton and his Saints with the Bucs. What do you think, my man: Reason to hope, or are we grasping for orange and blue straws?
GABRIEL >> On this date in 2035, Mahomes will be as old as Aaron Rodgers is right now. Think about that. Assuming no seismic changes to the NFL landscape between now and then — and, we’re talking a long enough time horizon that nothing’s impossible — the Broncos and Chiefs would have 24 regular-season matchups between now and then. And, Denver can only hope, maybe a postseason showdown or two. Andy Reid will probably be well into a thoroughly deserved retirement at that point, though the 64-year- old did say Sunday after winning the Super Bowl that he’ll be back in 2023 if the Chiefs will have him. Don’t think that’s going to be an issue, Andy. So, bottom line, it’s not going to get easier for the Broncos any time soon.
KEELER >> The NFL’S new edicts on contact and pass defense have opened the game up and extended the careers of pocket-happy quarterbacks at the top of the food chain — 35 is the new 30, 40 is the new 35. (Unless you’re Russell Wilson whose 34 looks about 38-and-a-half.) But it does give me pause that most of Payton’s damage against Brady came after TB14 had turned 42, when his already limited mobility was a non-factor. As a stationary target, the Saints teed off, sacking Brady 13 times over those four regularseason tilts in ’20 and ’21, compared to just once in the NFC playoff meeting that TB12 won in New Orleans in January 2021.
GABRIEL >> At this stage, we don’t know exactly what Denver will look like schematically or personnel-wise on defense in 2023 and beyond. In order to slow down the Bradys and Mahomes of the world, you, of course, have to have dudes. Even then, the great ones are going to make good defenses look silly. But there is also a mental fortitude element to the equation that, if you’ve got Mahomes on the ropes (like, say, leading his team by 10 at halftime in the Super Bowl) you can stave off the magic and put a game away. Payton should help on that front, if nothing else. The Broncos made life tough on Mahomes twice this past year, but they were playing catch-up both times.
KEELER >> Mahomes presents different challenges than Brady does, in part because of his legs. As we just saw, the guy can even fake it during the playoffs with a bad wheel if he must. In the only head-to-head meeting between Payton and Mahomes (December 2020 at the Superdome) the Saints sacked the Chiefs QB four times and forced him into a lost fumble … and still gave up three passing touchdowns and 32 points. Less-fun fact: Only twice since 2017 — and the Colts did it both times (2019 and ’22) — has a team scored fewer than 24 points against Mahomes when he started and still beat him.
GABRIEL >> Yeah, you’re almost always going to have to score to beat the Chiefs. That’s where Payton has the biggest chance to help the Broncos, who have not finished better than 19th in scoring since Peyton Manning retired. The Nathaniel Hackett Broncos mounted a spirited comeback on Kansas City in early December, only to fall short. The Jerry Rosburg Broncos led the Chiefs at the start of the fourth quarter at Arrowhead on Jan. 1. The Sean Payton Broncos, you’d think, will end the streak at some point. But preventing a furtherance of Kansas City’s dominance, especially in the short-term? That’s a much bigger challenge.