County, advocates disagree on possible financial impacts
Nearly a month before a vote in Keystone that will determine if the area will become Colorado’s newest town, Summit County officials met to discuss the potential fiscal impacts should its residents break away from being governed by the county.
A report by officials presented during a Tuesday Summit Board of County Commissioners meeting found similar revenue projections for Keystone as another report conducted by a nonprofit group of advocates for incorporation — known as the Keystone Citizens League. However, it differed on how much funding would be left over year-over-year based on the would-be-town’s expenses.
“Both our assumptions are relatively close on revenues,” said David Reynolds, the county’s finance director. “It really comes down to the cost assumptions … between admin, public works, etcetera.”
According to a county memo presented by Reynolds, Keystone is projected to bring in about $20 million in revenue over the next five years beginning in 2023. That projection was based on data compiled by a Colorado-based consulting firm, Triple Point Strategic Consulting, which the county contracted with.
A citizens league analysis projects that revenue will be $19 million over the same period of time.
But county officials also estimate the town will spend $19.6 million over the next five years compared to an estimate of $14.3 million by the citizens league, though much of that is based on a 2021 report, according to Reynolds.
Based on more recent projections in 2022 from the citizens league, Reynolds said that spending projection is likely closer to $16.9 million — a difference of about $2.7 million, or 20%. But even as newer data shows the citizens league’s projections have “narrowed the gap,” the discrepancy between that and the county’s model leave officials skeptical of Keystone’s fiscal sustainability.
“The county analysis indicates that the town of Keystone general fund will be barely able to operate at break- even level after incorporation,” the memo reads. “The (citizens league) analysis is much more optimistic with surpluses contributing to a significant general fund reserve.”
The memo goes on to state that county officials do not believe the expenses projected in the citizens’ league’s model are “sufficient to operate the town of Keystone.”
The main discrepancies appear in projections for administration, public safety, community development and public works but also include what county officials said were bigger unknowns, such as housing projects.
For example, the county analysis projects public works spending to be roughly $ 500,000 more each year than what is estimated in the citizens league’s model. In 2024, the county estimate’s Keystone could need to spend more than $ 644,000 on public works while the other model estimates spending of just over $218,000.
“You can’t buy a piece of heavy road equipment for less than $400,000,” Reynolds said.
But a memo presented to the Summit Daily News by Keystone resident Ken Riley, who represents a coalition of advocates for incorporation known as the Keystone Incorporation Committee and is also the president of the citizen’s league, disputes much of the county’s analysis and claims it is based off a “very early draft” of expense projections.
The memo cites several factors as reasons for the discrepancies between the two studies including “inflated” expenses by county officials based on inflationrelated costs that did not account for increases in sales tax revenue; county officials’ inclusion of “miscellaneous” expenses in each department and an alleged $130,000 per year in “double counting of costs.”
“The county’s analysis is designed to paint the incorporation picture in the worst possible terms,” the memo reads.
The push to make Keystone its own town, which will culminate in a vote f rom registered Keystone residents and property owners on March 28, marks the second such effort to do so in more than two decades.
With a petition last summer from residents and property owners that garnered enough signatures to trigger an official election, proponents of incorporation have made the case that it will be better for the community’s needs.