Erik Johnson, free agency and the likely end of an era
The defining stretch of the NHL offseason is arriving with the draft and free agency days apart — events that will shape some organizations’ cores for years to come. Then there’s the Avalanche, comforted by a familiar nucleus but faced with the increasing likelihood that their roster’s depth could look very different, very soon.
Start with the end of an era: Erik Johnson is expected to try the open market as an unrestricted free agent July 1, a source told The Post, confirming a report Thursday by
ESPN’S Emily Kaplan.
The Avs aren’t in position to re- sign the veteran defenseman, taking into account the team’s salary cap space and the $ 6 million AAV standard set by Johnson’s expiring contract. A dramatic pay cut would be necessary for Johnson, 35, to return for a 14th season with the same team. He was on a sevenyear deal worth $ 42 million.
The Avalanche’s other prominent pending UFA situations seem destined to play out similarly. J. T. Compher ($ 3.5 million x four years) and Evan Rodrigues ($ 2 million x one year), the headliners of a forward lineup in flux, both might have priced themselves out of Colorado’s range last season — especially because they’re surrounded by what is widely considered a weak NHL free agency class. There’s at least one team out there bound to get hasty.
Whether Chris MacFarland and Joe Sakic actually want to bring back their other pending UFAS is another matter: The Avalanche’s bottom six failed to score a single goal over the course of a seven- game playoff series in which Colorado was favored. The lasting image of the 202223 season was Nathan Mackinnon on fumes, trying to will the Avs to a tying goal late in Game 7 without help from his other lines. That makes it difficult to want to run it back with Matt Nieto or Lars Eller. It even raises questions about the Avalanche’s restricted free agent forwards, Alex Newhook and Denis Malgin.
All that to say the winds of change could be upon Colorado. No athlete currently on a Denver professional sports team has been in town longer than Johnson, who played 717 games for the Avalanche. Assuming he signs elsewhere in free agency, Charlie Blackmon will take over the title of Denver’s longesttenured athlete, with Gabriel Landeskog close behind. Blackmon made his Colorado Rockies debut June 7, 2011 — four months after Johnson first appeared in an Avalanche uniform Feb. 19, the day he was traded from St. Louis.
“Whether it’s the end of the road or not, I was just proud to play here for as long as I did,” Johnson said through tears after Game 7 this April. “And just grateful for everything.”
The former No. 1 draft pick won his first Stanley Cup with the Avalanche in 2022. By then, Johnson was a third- pairing, stay- at- home defenseman utilized for his steady presence on the penalty kill and at even strength. After averaging more than 20 minutes in 11 consecutive seasons, he only played four games while hurt in 2020- 21, then his ice time dropped to 17: 16 over the last two seasons.
Johnson liked to refer to the Avalanche’s injury misfortune in 2022- 23 as their “championship tax.” Short offseasons catch up to you eventually. It was a wise sentiment from a trusted locker room leader.
The long- term tax of winning a Stanley Cup is different; it’s more than a few bruised shoulders, knees and toes. Contractually, the Avs have the star power to contend for the next three years at least ( probably more). The rosterbuilding challenge during that window resides on the fringes. When Nazem Kadri wins a championship as a second- line center, his value skyrockets. When Compher wins a division title and receives Selke buzz as the next 2C, his value skyrockets.
When forwards play next to Mackinnon and Mikko Rantanen, they look better. Their value skyrockets.
Gming after a championship is a constant race to find the newest affordable depth pieces. The Avs know where they stand in relation to the salary cap now that three of the biggest offseason dominos have fallen. Johnson’s $ 6 million dent from last year is no more. Landeskog will miss the entire 202324 season, meaning his $ 7 million cap hit won’t apply to the team’s. And Valeri Nichushkin does plan to return, leaving no questions about his $ 6.125 AAV.
Colorado has $ 62.5125 million in one- way contracts on the books for 12 players ( five forwards, five defensemen, two goalies) as July 1 nears. Those contracts eat 74.9% of the team’s cap space if the league salary cap increases by only $ 1 million, as has been projected. It’s common for at least one player on a two- way deal to be on the NHL roster at any given time, so those contracts ( Brad Hunt, Ben Meyers, new trade acquisition Fredrik Olofsson, etc.) will factor in as well.
A chunk of the $ 20 million available will go to
RFA Bo Byram, but it’s still difficult to predict how much. His contract could end up structured as a long- term or bridge.
From there, Macfarland and Sakic are left with the resources that could yield an exceedingly different collection of role players from the current ones. Mackinnon’s league- leading $ 12.6 million AAV goes into effect this season, which will catch every eye in the NHL — he’s unimpeachably worth the investment — but it’s the remaining however- manymillion that will truly begin to shape the Avalanche’s 2024 fate.