Is Helton primed to make Hall of Fame this year?
Q>> What is going on with the early Hall of Fame voting with Todd Helton? He’s being dropped from ballots and not being picked up by voters who haven’t voted for him previously, even though the bulk trends show he should be getting in this year. What rationale can you offer and do other voters seek you out for perspective?
— Jason, Visalia, Calif.
PATRICK>> As I write this, Helton is tracking at 82.4% on Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame vote tracker. That’s the good news. Also, nearly all of the first-time voters have put a checkmark next to Helton’s name.
The bad news is that when actual results are revealed, the candidates usually lose about 6%. That puts Helton on the bubble to top the 75% needed for election Cooperstown.
I know of at least three voters who selected Helton last year but did not vote for him this year. I don’t understand how he could be a worthy candidate last year but not this year. It’s perplexing.
I understand how Helton would get bumped if he was ninth or 10th on a voter’s ballot last year, and then two new candidates — Adrian Beltre and Joe Mauer, for instance — replaced Helton. But a few voters simply dumped Helton even though they had room on their ballots.
Q>> How low is the bar set for the Rockies’ 2024 season to be considered a success?
— Matthew, Lochbuie
PATRICK>> I understand your pessimism. Let me just say that I don’t expect owner Dick Monfort to set the bar of expectations at a .500 season as he did last January. It’s fair to say that even those within the organization believe that the club is at least another year away from being a .500 team.
The low bar? I would imagine that a 70- or 75-win season would be considered a qualified step forward, at least from the front office’s point of view. That scenario would include improved starting pitching, continued growth by the trio of Nolan Jones, Ezequiel Tovar and Brenton Doyle, and a solid, injury-free year from Kris Bryant.
The potential debuts from the likes of infielder Adael Amador, outfielders Yanquiel Fernandez, Jordan Beck and Zac Veen, and the rise of catching prospect Drew Romo, would qualify as part of the Rockies’ success in 2024.
Q>> In your estimation, have the Rockies bottomed out with last season’s 59 wins? Or can it get more painful?
— Ed Helinski, Auburn, N.Y.
PATRICK>> To piggyback off the previous answer, I do think the Rockies will be better this season, so, yes, it will be less painful. Still, their record is not going to be good. I don’t think the Rockies will lose 103 games again but I don’t expect a great leap forward. My early prediction — subject to change after spring training — is a 68-94 record.
Q>> Who opens the season as the primary (closer)? Tyler Kinley? Justin Lawrence? Someone not currently on the roster? Thanks and be well.
— Greg, Syracuse, N.Y.
PATRICK>> General manager
Bill Schmidt said at the winter meetings that the closer’s job is an open competition heading into spring training. Lawrence and Kinley are possibilities, and so is Daniel Bard, but only if he can rebound from his bad 2023 season. I don’t think the Rockies will target someone from outside the organization as a closer this season.