Russia’s brutal war calculus

Two years of war have remade Russia.

Isolated from the West, it is now more dependent on China. Political repression is reminiscent of the grim days of the Soviet Union.

But Russia is not in the economic shambles many in the West predicted when they imposed punishing sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine. Many Russians are earning their highest incomes in years.

Russian society has been refashioned in ways that have devastated some and lifted others. While government critics languish in jail and young men die in trenches at the front, other Russians — especially those willing to spout the official line — are feeling more optimistic than ever.

Here is a look at how Russia at war has changed — suffering enormous costs by some metrics but faring better than expected by others.

Daily life

People fled Russia in droves after the invasion and draft, more than 820,000, although some returned.

Alcoholics were diagnosed in higher numbers after more than a decade of steady declines.

Demand for psychologists increased by more than 60% in the first year of the war.

Traffic to Facebook and Instagram dropped after Russia blocked them, and use of Telegram and secure platforms such as VPNS surged.

Travel abroad plummeted from prepandemic days.

But people are making higher wages as men deployed to the front reduce the ranks of workers back home.

Despite the ways that life has changed, many people say they feel positive about how President Vladimir Putin is doing. His popularity surged as the war began and is now at its highest level in seven years.

The economy

Putin went into the war with his financial house in order.

Government debt was low. Funds were stashed away. And a team of agile technocrats were on hand to fend off a crisis.

After an initial shock, the Russian system recovered, thanks in part to emergency financial measures, high oil prices and trade with China and India. Moscow also greatly increased state spending.

Collectively, Russia has created a wartime economy.

Trade with Europe dropped about 65% after Western sanctions..

But trade with China, India and Turkey boomed.

If oil prices plunge, Russia will struggle. If the military spending spree ends, all bets are off. Russia can sustain warfare in Ukraine for the foreseeable future, but its long-term economic future is in doubt.

Support for the war

For the moment, at least, the resilient economy has lifted Putin. And a campaign of propaganda and repression has allowed him to reign virtually unchallenged.

The percentage of people saying the country is moving in the right direction is the highest in decades, 71% last month.

Blood and treasure

In the early months of the war, Putin’s military made grave mistakes, but it has regrouped. Russia fended off a Westernbacked Ukrainian counteroffensive and has taken the initiative on the front, buoyed by frozen U.S. aid for Ukraine.

Still, Russia is far from controlling the four regions it claims to have annexed, let alone the rest of Ukraine, and Putin may need to carry out another draft.

Moscow has made increasing gains in recent weeks. It now controls about 18% of Ukraine, up from 7% before the fullscale invasion. But its control of Ukraine is down from the 27% Russian forces once occupied at their height.

Some 60,000 Russians have been killed in the fighting, according to U.S. officials.