Plotting a reasonable course
The Nuggets get a couple of their most difficult opponents out of the way this week with Phoenix and Boston in town. But the last collection of home games also includes intriguing visits from Cleveland, New York and again from Phoenix. (Plus Minnesota twice, of course.)
However challenging, the Nuggets probably need to go 9-3 or 10-2 in those dozen games to capitalize on their recent history of Ball Arena dominance. Anything worse, and the top seed might be out of reach. If you’re building in one road loss to the Timberwolves as part of the map, then 10-2 is even more important. That would result in an identical home record (34-7) to last season.
On the road, it’s simple: Win more than you lose. That probably entails beating at least four of the five lottery-bound opponents to leave room for a 1-3 record against the four winning teams. It adds up to a 15-6 finish in the last 21 games. Counting on a loss to Minnesota means this exercise is entertaining a scenario in which the Nuggets are likely on the wrong side of tiebreakers. So would 56 or 57 wins be enough to finish higher than both the Timberwolves and Thunder outright, given Denver’s scheduling advantages? one. “Nobody wants the Lakers in the first round or Golden State in the first round,” Jokic said.
Even the two-time
MVP who swept Lebron James last year and swept Steph Curry this year maintains a healthy, respectful fear of their championship pedigrees. The Lakers and Warriors seem destined for a Playin Tournament matchup. One of them could enter the bracket as a nasty No. 8 seed. Teams with far less playoff experience such as New Orleans and Sacramento might feel like cozier matchups. Is it worth all that effort and injury risk to be No. 1?
Jamal Murray is dealing with his second sprained right ankle of the season, on top of shin splints and the constant fear of some new leg affliction. Sitting him on any given night could mean sacrificing a win, even if it’s the smart decision. Caldwell-pope has also been banged up recently, but other than that, the Nuggets have made it this far with decent injury luck (Aaron Gordon’s Rottweiler incident notwithstanding).
Malone has been clear that he doesn’t want to push that luck — even if Caldwell-pope and his teammates are all fired up by a Jokic text message lost somewhere in Cabo.