Shift in Russian tactics intensifies air war risk
KYIV, UKRAINE>> The Ukraine war has been fought largely on the ground in the past two years, with troops often locked in backand-forth battles with heavy artillery and drone support. The countries’ air forces have played second fiddle because of Ukraine’s limited fleet of planes and Russia’s inability to gain the air supremacy it once expected.
But as the Russian military presses on with attacks in the east, its air force has taken on a greater role.
Military analysts say Russia increasingly has used warplanes near the front lines to drop powerful guided bombs on Ukrainian positions and clear a path forward for the infantry. That tactic, used most notably in Avdiivka, the strategic eastern city captured by Russian forces last month, has yielded good results, experts say.
It also has come with risks. “It’s a costly but quite effective tool that Russia is now using in the war,” said Serhiy Hrabskyi, a retired Ukrainian army colonel. “It’s dangerous for them to send their fighter jets” close to the front line, he added, but it can “impact Ukrainian positions effectively.”
The Ukrainian army last week said it had shot down seven Su34 fighter jets, nearly all operating in the east, just a few days after downing an A-50 long-range radar reconnaissance aircraft. It was, according to Ukrainian officials, part of a series of successful strikes against the Russian air force, in which Ukraine claimed to have shot down 15 planes in as many days.
The majority of the shootdowns could not be verified independently, and a senior U.S. official expressed skepticism at that number. The official said the Ukrainians appear to be taking credit in some instances for planes they fire at but which are not confirmed to have been downed.
Oryx, a military analysis site that counts losses based on visual evidence, and Russian military bloggers confirmed the loss of two Su-35 fighter jets. Britain’s military intelligence services confirmed the destruction of the A-50 plane.
Tom Karako, the director of the Missile Defense Project at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the Russian losses probably were the result of “some relationship between the Russian aircraft being put in harm’s way,” Ukraine’s intelligence gathering on the movements of Russian planes and the deployment of air-defense systems “to take them out.”
After the invasion in February 2022, Ukraine managed to keep Russia from controlling the skies through air combat and the skillful use of anti-aircraft missiles. After only a month and heavy losses among its warplanes, Russia stopped flying its aircraft beyond the front lines, RUSI said in a report, turning instead to launching barrages of cruise and ballistic missiles from afar.
But that left Russia “unable to effectively employ the potentially heavy and efficient aerial firepower” of its fighter-bombers to strike Ukrainian front-line positions, the report said.
This began to change early last year when Russia started using glide bombs, guided munitions that are dropped from a plane and can fly long distances to the front lines, limiting the risk to planes from anti-aircraft missiles. Carrying hundreds of kilograms of explosives, the glide bombs can smash through the underground bunkers that protect soldiers at the front.
“These bombs completely destroy any position,” Egor Sugar, a Ukrainian soldier who fought in Avdiivka, wrote on social media. “All buildings and structures simply turn into a pit after the arrival of just one.”
Ukrainian officials and military analysts said Russian aviation had played an important role in the capture of Avdiivka, one that required Russian jets “to fly closer” to the front line to maximize the effect of the glide bombs. And that exposed them to the risk of being shot down by Ukraine’s air defenses.
In late December, the Ukrainian army said it destroyed three Su-34 jets near the Russian-controlled eastern bank of the Dnieper River in the south, where Ukrainian troops have secured small positions. Then came the shootdowns in the east.
It remains unclear which airdefense systems Ukraine has deployed. But some army officials and analysts have hinted at the use of U.s.-made Patriot systems, America’s most advanced ground-based air defense system.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, said “Russian forces appeared to tolerate an increased rate of aviation losses in recent weeks in order to conduct glide bomb strikes in support of ongoing Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine.”