What are Denver’s options if it doesn’t land QB?
The big board in the Broncos draft room features highly classified material.
Its location, though, is no secret at this point. It’s nestled right between a rock and a hard place.
Sean Payton’s team needs a quarterback. But so do several others that pick earlier than No. 12.
Denver could trade up for a quarterback. But so could several others that have more draft capital.
Finding a real answer at quarterback is worth almost any cost. But the Broncos have shelled out again and again since Peyton Manning retired and struck out every time.
They have so many other needs, and not just at the middle- market positions where they jettisoned quality starters this offseason like center, inside linebacker and safety. We’re talking premium positions. Edge. Interior defensive line. Cornerback. Tackle. The positions teams usually address in the first round of the NFL Draft.
It’s no surprise, then, that the Broncos have needs at those positions considering they’ve made just one firstround pick since 2021 and have traded away their top selections from 2020 ( WR Jerry Jeudy), 2019 ( TE Noah Fant) and 2018 ( OLB Bradley Chubb).
Quarterback, though, trumps all other needs — or at least all other conversations — this time of year.
Poll league sources, scouts, draft analysts, casual observers, or just about anyone else with an opinion and you get some version of the same answer: The Broncos probably take a quarterback in the first round, even if it’s not a particularly great idea or good value.
“That’s kind of where I see it,” ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller told The Post. “They’re a team where they’ve got No. 12 and then ( no picks until) No. 76. How can I build a team this way? The answer is you can’t. So you’re either moving back from No. 12 or up from No. 76. And I think that’s where they’ve become a really difficult team to discuss on a national level. Because OK, yeah, drafting Bo Nix at No. 12 is dumb. We all agree with that. But what else are you going to do?”
Of course, there are always other options. Here are a few that don’t include drafting a quarterback at No. 12 or moving up for one.
Set the board
General managers don’t want to be picking in the top half of the draft, but they also relish the chance to select difference- makers.
“It’s important to hit on most of your picks, especially when you’re picking that high,” general manager George Paton said after the Broncos wrapped up last year’s 8- 9 campaign. “We haven’t had a first- round pick since 2021, and that one worked out pretty well. We’re excited, but we don’t want to have to pick up here again.”
This particular year, there will likely be four quarterbacks — Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and J. J. McCarthy — and three receivers off the board by No. 12. Likely Notre Dame left tackle Joe Alt, too. That still leaves a bevy of 2024’ s best players at several positions of need for Denver to choose from.
“You’re looking at the top corners in the draft — Terrion Arnold and Quinyon Mitchell — will both be there,” Miller said. “( Georgia tight end) Brock Bowers could potentially be there. You might have your pick of the litter at offensive tackle outside of Joe Alt.”
Miller called it about an average year overall for talent in the draft. He’s got 1819 true first- round grades, including five receivers and four quarterbacks.
Outside of quarterback, this group is considered particularly strong at receiver, on the offensive line and at cornerback. Good quality through the first couple of rounds, but perhaps a thinned- out Day 3 because so many players opted to go back to school given the extra eligibility still at play and the name, image and likeness earning potential available.
As it happens, six of Denver’s eight picks are on Day 3 ( though three are among Saturday’s first 12 selections).
Stay at 12, BPA
Paton summed up Denver’s position at No. 12 simply at the NFL’S ownership meetings.
“There’s going to be a really good player at 12,” he said. “Unless we have a total consensus love for another player, we’ll stay at 12 or we’ll move back.”
Are any of them good enough to convince Denver to resist the trade- back urge?
“If there’s one, it’s Terrion Arnold,” Miller said, referencing the Alabama cornerback. “He and ( Pat) Surtain together would just wreck people because they’re both so physical. It would be beautiful. In a perfect world, you’d have figured out quarterback in the offseason and you could draft Arnold and have that really great corner duo and have Arnold cheap for five years. That would be beautiful. …
“( Alabama OLB) Dallas Turner, I don’t think he’d be there, but Dallas Turner would make me consider it, too. Especially in this defense.”
NFL Network draft analyst Chad Reuter had frontseven defenders at the front of the line, particularly Florida State’s Jared Verse.
“I think he’d be an excellent pickup. I love ( Texas defensive tackle) Byron Murphy. Those are the two,” he told The Post.
On the other front line, some analysts see as many as 10 offensive linemen going in the first 32 picks. Miller had nine pegged in a recent seven- round mock draft exercise. “They’re all different flavors. They’re all really talented,” NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah said earlier this offseason of the tackle class.
Worth noting: The Broncos haven’t drafted a true tackle since they took Garett Bolles at No. 20 in 2017. Now he’s entering the last year of his contract and will be 32 when the season starts.
They could change that at No. 12. Like do- it- all Washington tackle Troy Fautanu? Great. Maybe a massive but inexperienced option in Georgia’s Amarius Mims? Sure. How about super athletic, easy movers like Penn State’s Olu Fashanu or Oklahoma’s Tyler Guyton?
“If they don’t go tackle in the first, they’re going tackle in the third,” Miller predicted.
Or Payton and Paton could end up looking at Georgia’s Bowers and see a player who can help the quarterback in Denver for a long time. Whoever that quarterback is.
“I would put Bowers in the elite talent category, but he may slide down,” Reuter said. “So I think one of these teams in the 10- 13 range would get a bargain with him, but I wouldn’t leave him out of the conversation at 5 with the Chargers, either.”
Up from 76
OK, but if Denver takes a non- quarterback at No. 12, is it going to wait 56 picks until the third round to make its second selection? That takes the team out of the running for Nix and Penix and maybe also South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler.
One option: Denver could move up from No. 76 rather than moving down from No. 12.
There are several ways to make it happen, but moving up all the way to the top of the second round is expensive. Denver’s 2025 firstrounder might do the trick on its own. Pairing a 2025 second- rounder with No. 76 is a possibility, too. Or pairing No. 76 with a player off the current roster. Maybe somebody isn’t thrilled with the remaining tackle options after an early run and inquires about Bolles.
Part of the decision- making process here is what ends up happening on the quarterback front.
Maybe teams that get left out of the top four will really be jockeying around the middle of the first round for Nix and Penix. Or maybe, as sometimes happens, teams stick to their boards. At this time last year, draft chatter suggested quarterback Will Levis could go as high as No. 2 overall. He ended up going No. 33.
“Are we going to see one of these teams just trade up with the Bears ( No. 9) or the Falcons ( No. 8) a couple of spots to get Mccarthy or something and then the other guys just end up being second- round picks?” Reuter pondered. “It makes it very interesting.”
Trade down, load up
There’s no tango without a dance partner, but if the perfect move up the board doesn’t materialize, the Broncos should be happy if teams start calling as their pick approaches.
“This takes some balls to do it, but your dream scenario is you trade back from 12 and you like the ( quarterback) value better in the 20s than you do at 12,” Miller said.
The recent history of teams moving down the draft board and still taking a quarterback is sordid. But this is a strange class.
Regardless, rolling the dice on the fifth or sixth quarterback in the class is less risky if you’re making another pick closer behind.
Miller suggested Buffalo, though the Bills would have to pay a steep price to come up from No. 28.
Reuter pegged Philadelphia at No. 22 as a potential trade partner.
Green Bay has No. 25 and five picks in the top 91. Dallas owner Jerry Jones at No. 24 could want to make a splash after a quiet free agency. Arizona has No. 4 but also Nos. 27 and 35. It could get aggressive after either taking WR Marvin Harrison Jr. at No. 4 or trading out to allow a team to nab a quarterback.
“Maybe you can trade back and recoup that pick, that second- round pick,” Jeremiah said. “I think that’s a good thought, actually. I kind of like that idea if you are looking in that direction.
“I think there’s also some interesting edge players that you could slide down a little bit depending on what happens. I think there’s kind of the top three guys with Turner, with Verse, with ( UCLA pass- rusher Laiatu) Latu. I think if two of the three are still there ( at No. 12), that might embolden you to make that move as well.”
Several of the offensive line options will still be available down the firstround order, too.
Of course, none of those answer the Broncos’ biggest question.
To QB or not to QB?
The overarching question: What does Denver do if moving up for a quarterback doesn’t pan out?
“You can’t reach,” Reuter said. “You have to just ask yourself, ‘ Is Nix really a Day 1 starter? Is he the guy that’s going to put Jarrett Stidham on the bench?’ And if you don’t think so, you just let things play out.”
The No. 12 pick isn’t enough to get one of the top quarterbacks in this draft, but it is enough to land a really good player or unlock other doors.
Of course, NFL coaches and executives don’t often have the luxury of letting that guide decision- making. If you don’t have a quarterback, your job’s on the line.
But maybe Denver’s setup allows for more flexibility than usual.
Payton might think he can make 2024 work with Stidham and a later pick like Tulane’s Michael Pratt. The brain trust might realize this is not a one- year fix.
If the value isn’t there at quarterback in the first round, will Payton and Paton actually feel pressure to force the issue?
“It’s a PR nightmare,” Reuter said of not taking a quarterback. “However, if there’s one head coach that’s secure enough in himself and in his situation, it’s probably Sean Payton. They’re not going to let him go in the next two years. They’re not. If things don’t work out this year, there’s going to be another group of quarterbacks next year, and there’s going to be some pretty good ones. I think Payton and Paton are going to be a little bit more long- term thinking. …
“I really don’t think they’re going to be controlled by that.”