Is trading down, trying to land a quarterback the right move?
Q » Not a question, but an opinion. I think the Broncos should trade back for more picks — possibly a second- rounder — and then pick quarterback Mike Pratt from Tulane or, if he’s still available, Bo Nix.
— Peter Beckley, Aurora
PARKER » There’s definitely more conversation around the possibility of trading back from No. 12 for the Broncos. Not that they couldn’t move up or take a quarterback at their original pick, but the closer we get to the draft, the more folks have come around on some combination of these general thoughts: The Broncos have a lot of needs. They have needs at premium positions besides quarterback. The value at quarterback just might not be there if four go in the top five picks. The Broncos may or may not be willing to mortgage another haul of future draft capital after giving up three firstrounders and three second rounders in the past two- plus years for Russell Wilson and Sean Payton.
When people casually just say, oh, Payton will give up multiple future first- round picks to move up to No. 3 or No. 4, it’s good to keep in mind that even by trading that mega- haul, you’re getting the third or fourth quarterback in the class. That kind of move only comes together if the guy you feel strongest about is still on the board. It’d be a terrible idea to make that move for a consolation prize.
This quote from owner and CEO Greg Penner to a question I asked this spring at the ownership meetings in Orlando keeps coming to mind, too: “Our approach is going to be, long- term, to build the roster through the draft, and then be opportunistic with free agency and trades and strike when we are in a good place to do that.”
It’s going to be hard to build through the draft if your next first- round pick is in 2027.
Q » Bo Nix’s draft stock seems like it’s falling a bit. Any chance we could trade down, land him and pick up more draft capital?
— Paul Smith, Fort Collins
PARKER » I’m not sure that Nix’s stock is falling. It’s just that he’s never really been considered by most analysts to be in the same category as the very top options in the draft. And as we get closer, there’s more and more scrutiny on whether a team is really going to take him in the middle of the first round.
Maybe somebody will. It could even be Denver. There’s a reason and a logic to that, and it’s not just about fit. Good quarterbacks are the most expensive commodity in football. As we saw in free agency this spring, the market for No. 2- level quarterbacks is on the rise, too. Nix might not be an upper- echelon starter right away, and he might never be. But he’d have to completely wash out to not be at least worth what the No. 12 pick is getting paid over four years, to say nothing of getting picked later in the first round or into the second day of the draft.
Teams have become more and more aggressive picking quarterbacks because you’re paying them nothing compared to the market. They’re only expensive if you trade draft capital to land one.
But that’s part of why you consistently see quarterbacks get drafted far earlier than where they’re ranked overall. And why every team should make a habit of regularly drafting quarterbacks, even if it’s only as a stash- and- develop project.