What to know about Friday’s severe storm threat
The Cape Fear region will face a second serious storm threat in less than a week on Friday.
A similar setup of colliding air masses over the Carolinas will give portions of the region an enhanced risk of severe weather. While conditions don’t appear as dynamic as Tuesday, Fayetteville could once again see strong winds, hail and rainfall.
The rain and wind, combined with Tuesday storms, could result in additional power outages across the region.
“Damaging straight-line wind gusts, resulting in downed trees and power lines, will be possible between Friday 5 p.m. to 2 a.m. Saturday,” the National Weather Service in Raleigh noted in a published briefing. “Non-thunderstorm wind gusts of 35-45 mph are possible.”
There is also a chance of isolated tornadoes and damaging hail as the storm system approaches, mainly to the south and west of Fayetteville.
A lot to unpack, so here’s the setup
Friday’s setup is similar to Tuesday’s, with a few exceptions. The core of Friday’s wind energy isn’t as intense and is a bit further north. In effect, the pot being stirred isn’t as large, nor quite as bubbly.
That said, the Carolinas will still be in the path of a strong lower-level jet stream, with winds a mile up of about 90-100 mph. Any thunderstorms that develop could pull down some of those winds.
Timing of the system’s arrival, after sunset Friday, limits daytime instability. That’s why the risk of severe weather is higher to the south and west, where daytime warmth could still be a factor. However, isolated storms are possible well into the evening. We may not see the long squall lines that raked the region Tuesday, but pockets of potent activity will remain a threat.
Temperatures will climb into the mid-60s Friday as brisk southern winds rush in ahead of the system. Winds will shift after midnight in Fayetteville as the front passes. Look for gusts up to 40 mph, possibly higher in storms. Rainfall will be much lighter than Tuesday — no more than a halfinch.
The weekend
Saturday will see the system well to the east, with sunshine and strong westerly winds. It will also be one of those “high temperature at midnight” sort of days, as much cooler air filters into the Cape Fear region.
Sunday is looking dry, sunny and seasonal with a high in the mid-50s across the region. Lows will be close to freezing.
Next week
Be prepared for a cold snap by midweek. Following a seasonal Monday, with a high of about 55, a strong trough backed by Arctic air appears ready to dig deeply into the South.
If so, it will arrive in the Carolinas on Tuesday. Highs that day likely won’t reach 50, sliding into the mid-to-upper 20s overnight. Toss in a biting northwest wind, and the wind chill Wednesday
morning could be in the low teens in Fayetteville.
This, of course, raises the hopes of Snowhounds in the region, and some modeling introduces the tantalizing prospect of flurries. The chances of any freezing precipitation hinges on timing and whether we have another “cold chasing the moisture” setup. We’ll need to wait a bit to see.
One thing is for sure: Next week will be cold. By the end of the week, Fayetteville may not get out of the 30s. Whether we can get some precipitation to come along remains to be seen.
Got a weather question? Chick Jacobs can be reached at ncweatherhound@gmail.com or NCWeatherhound on X/Twitter.