The Guardian view on Venezuela: the impasse continues; the people pay
It is almost a week since 21 Venezuelans went missing when their boat sank en route to Trinidad and Tobago. They were part of a much greater outpouring of citizens; more than three million have left the country since 2015, as conditions there have become increasingly desperate under President Nicolás Maduro. As a new bout of turmoil hits Venezuela, with tear gas loosed on protesters in Caracas, the political drama quickly claimed any attention given to the case. But those lost souls should remind those watching from outside Venezuela that this is a human crisis above all.
Opposition leader Juan Guaidó described his attempted uprising on Tuesday as the “final phase” of his plan to oust Mr Maduro. He spoke among soldiers, close to a military installation, and – critically – with his mentor Leopoldo López at his side; the latter apparently out of house arrest with the aid of sympathetic guards. But as the hours passed it looked like more of the same: a strange new phase in the old stalemate, which began three months ago when Mr Guaidó, who heads the national assembly, declared himself acting president with the backing of the US and other countries – but little discernible effect at home beyond the boost to opposition morale.
By Wednesday morning Mr López was at the residence of the Spanish ambassador. Mr Guaidó later reappeared at demonstrations in Caracas, insisting his bid for military backing still had legs. Mr Maduro claimed he had triumphed over a “deranged” attempt to overthrow him.
There is no doubting the oppressive nature, the shocking incompetence and blatant kleptocracy of Mr Maduro’s rule. His government has tossed opponents into prison; brutally attacked demonstrators; and set up a new legislature to bypass the opposition-held national assembly. Dodgy elections for both that body and the presidency itself followed. Around nine in 10 Venezuelans are living in poverty and the country is enduring one of the longest runs of hyperinflation in history. Shortages of food and medicine are rife; diseases such as diphtheria are resurgent. US sanctions have only exacerbated this disastrous course. Venezuela cannot recover politically, socially or economically while Mr Maduro remains in charge. Even a tranche of Chavistas have abandoned the man Hugo Chávez picked as his successor.
But there is also no doubting that many in Venezuela are fearful of the right, and have vivid and painful memories of the US backing military seizures of power in Latin America – even if they recognise the hypocrisy of an authoritarian portraying himself as a second Salvador Allende. The sight of Brazil’s far right president Jair Bolsonaro cheering on Mr Guaidó – and growing mutterings among the right there about the case for military intervention – can only increase anxieties.
Meanwhile the US has been claiming that Mr Maduro had planned to flee until dissuaded by Moscow, and that key officials, including the defence minister, had privately agreed that their boss had to go. US suggestions that military action is on the table “if required” also appear to be designed to add more pressure. An information war is of course better than the boots-onthe-ground kind. Yet basing a strategy on bluff has its dangers too and the dangers of overreach remain real. Careful international engagement rather than reckless ideological intervention is required, to protect the lives and prospects of ordinary Venezuelans, and convince them they have a future in their own country.