The Guardian view on a changing EU: leaving Britain behind
There is a common misperception among British Eurosceptics that the EU is as obsessed with obstructing Brexit as they are with completing it. That is untrue in two ways. First, the priority in Brussels is to facilitate the UK’s orderly departure. There was a phase of grief, but that has mostly given way to frustration at British politicians’ collective ineptitude – remainers as well as leavers.
Second, EU eyes are mostly elsewhere. Last week saw the beginning of confirmatory hearings for Ursula von der Leyen’s new commission. Corruption allegations led to two nominees – from Hungary and Romania – being rejected as unfit by a European parliamentary vetting committee even before public scrutiny had begun. Since the commission reflects the delicate balance of political forces in the legislature, any striking down of candidates risks provoking retaliation. The requirement to secure MEPs’ consent for Ms von der Leyen’s administration means Brexit is not the only issue coming to a head at the end of October.
Then there will be arduous budget negotiations (for which any ambiguity around the UK’s status could be a tiresome complicating factor). In December, Charles Michel, the Belgian prime minister, takes over from Donald Tusk as president of the European council. Tusk is an anglophile who has been conspicuously willing to prop doors open in case the UK experiences a change of heart. The influence of Angela Merkel, another leading advocate of patience with British indecision, is waning as the German chancellor nears retirement. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, is the more dynamic figure now, and he is impatient to move on with EU reforms that leave the UK out of the equation.
The balance of ideological forces has also shifted thanks to the expulsion of Matteo Salvini’s far-right League party from government in Rome. Italian politics is still unstable. Hardline nationalism is not beaten there or anywhere else on the continent, but its capture of power in the eurozone’s thirdlargest economy had been a cause of angst on a par with regret of Brexit among moderate and liberal supporters of the European project. The defeat of Austria’s xenophobic Freedom party in elections last week has also provoked cautious optimism about the viability of mainstream continental politics in what has recently felt like a rearguard action against surging populism. Even in Hungary, where Victor Orbán’s antiliberal Fidesz party has captured the state, there are signs that the opposition is regaining lost ground ahead of local elections later this month.
The EU is still grappling with structural problems and cultural tensions. There has been no tidal change to ease those pressures. But there is a sense in which the project continues to defy those who wish it harm. That, too, has been a misperception among British Eurosceptics. To justify quitting the bloc, they declare it unsustainable and forecast its unravelling. The EU has many flaws, but it also has formidable resilience, which is a lasting rebuke to Brexiters as their relevance in continental politics fades away.