Five key takeaways from primaries as Biden's wins pave way to nomination
Joe Biden had a big night of wins that are paving a clear path to the Democratic presidential nomination with commanding victories in Mississippi, Missouri and Michigan, a state that was vital to his rival Bernie Sanders.
Here are five key takeaways from a night that appears to have put Biden on an unstoppable march to become the Democrats’ 2020 champion against Donald Trump in November.
Michigan could be a knockout blow for Sanders
Bernie Sanders lost Michigan, a state that by his own admission was “enormously” important to his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee. It was not only the most delegate-rich of the six states holding primary contests on Tuesday, it was symbolically important, too.
Four years ago, Sanders upset Hillary Clinton in the state and revived his underdog bid. Then Trump snatched the state from Democrats and won the election. This time around, a win there on Tuesday would have helped build enthusiasm for Sanders ahead of next week’s consequential slate of primaries and bolster his case that he is the strongest contender to take on Trump. But this year the state delivered a serious blow to Sanders.
Propelled by a surge of support in the suburbs, Biden won counties that broke heavily for Sanders in 2016. The result suggests that at least part of Sanders’ support in 2016 was a protest vote against Clinton. This time around proved to be more difficult for Sanders in part because Biden does not share Clinton’s vulnerabilities with rural, working-class voters. At the same time, suburban voters, many of whom may have sat out or voted in the Republican primary four years ago, flocked to Biden.
The establishment strikes back
Before polls closed on the west coast, Biden had been declared the “presumptive nominee” and the “prohibitive” favorite by most pundits. Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang said the math added up to only one outcome: Biden as the nominee. He then endorsed the former vice-president on live TV.
In the past 10 days since the South Carolina primary, the Democratic establishment has coalesced behind Biden in a rapid, unprecedented fashion. Every candidate that has dropped out since then has endorsed him, excluding Elizabeth Warren who has notably not backed anyone. On Tuesday, two Democratic super Pacs that had stayed neutral in primary said they were prepared to get to work for Biden.
“The math is now clear” said Guy Cecil, chairman of Priorities USA, the largest Democratic Super Pac. “Joe Biden is going to be the Democratic nominee for President and @prioritiesUSA is going to do everything we can to help him defeat Donald Trump in November. I hope others will join us in the fight.”
Bradley Beychok, the president of the liberal Super Pac American Bridge, announced it was “ALL IN to elect @JoeBiden as our next President”.
In remarks from Philadelphia on Tuesday night, Biden sought to look past the nomination fight: “I want to thank Bernie Sanders and his supporters for their tireless energy and their passion. We share a common goal and together, we’ll defeat Donald Trump.”
Black voters lift Biden again
After Biden’s clean sweep of southern states last week on the strength of his support among African American voters, it was widely projected that he would continue the streak. As soon as polls closed on Tuesday, Biden was declared the projected winner of Mississippi and Missouri, two southern states with large black electorates.
According to CNN, Biden won the support of a staggering 96% of black voters aged 60 or older in Mississippi, a constituency that made up nearly a third of the Democratic primary electorate in the state.
Over the last four years Sanders attempted to make inroads with black voters in the south, cultivating a friendship with Mayor Chokwe Antar Lumumba of Jackson, a rising star in the party who endorsed the senator. But after his Super Tuesday losses, the
Sanders campaign effectively conceded the south to Biden, by cancelling a rally in Mississippi and shifting his focus on the midwest.
African American voters have picked the eventual Democratic nominee in every presidential primary since 1992.
What’s Sanders’ next move? Quit or slog on?
Since entering the race last year, Sanders has sought a two-person showdown with Biden. In the past weeks, his campaign has ramped up his criticism of Biden, hitting him for his support for the Iraq war and past comments on cutting social security, even engaging in debates about his general election prospects against Trump and overall acuity. But none of it has had much of an impact with voters.
For a second week in a row, Demo
cratic voters made it abundantly clear they are ready to end the primary contest and begin the tricky process of unifying the party together ahead of a general election fight with Trump.
Sanders is at a crossroads in his campaign: does he wage an all-out assault on Biden over their policy differences in a last-ditch attempt to shift the race or does he choose to champion the progressive movement within the party and use his leverage to push Biden leftward.
In 2016, Sanders stayed in the race until June, a decision many Democrats believe weakened Clinton in the general election by prolonging the nominating contest.
On Tuesday, Sanders returned home and was not expected to address reporters, according to his campaign. His choice will probably be clearer on Sunday, when the candidates are due to face off in a one-on-one debate in Arizona. Two days later, Arizona, Florida, Illinois and Ohio hold primaries. Sanders lost all four in 2016.
Coronavirus fears hit the 2020 presidential race
As the number of Americans with coronavirus neared 1,000, Sanders convened a roundtable discussion about the virus with five public health experts in Detroit.
A reporter asked the Vermont senator whether he planned to scale back any of his events due to the size of his rallies, noting that he often holds rallies with “more than 10,000 people”.
“Fifteen thousand,” Sanders replied. Realizing his boast, the senator quickly added: “We do not go forward without consultation with local health officials.”
The next day, both Sanders and Biden cancelled election night events in Cleveland following the announcement of new protocols implemented by the Ohio governor to stop the spread of the coronavirus. Shortly thereafter, the host of the next Democratic debate, which will take place on 15 March in Phoenix, announced that there will be no live audience, press filing center or spin room for the event.
As the outbreak disrupts the campaign, it’s also highlighting the candidates strengths and weaknesses as they vie for the job of commander-in-chief. While Sanders has used the outbreak to critique the American healthcare system and argue his case for Medicare for All, Biden has taken the opportunity to showcase his executive experience.
On the question of who voters trust to handle a major crisis, the former vice-president leads the Vermont senator by wide margins in several of the states with primary contests on Tuesday. According to exit polls, 61% of voters believed Biden was better suited to the task compared with 27% for Sanders in Missouri. That margin was 46% to 27% in Washington and 51% to 32% among in-person voters in Michigan.