The Guardian view on Covid-19 and Brexit: extend the transition
If, at this critical moment, the government was to announce plans to put a new burden on business, disrupt supply chains and impede the flow of goods, the reckless folly of it would be obvious. But Boris Johnson does not need to make such an announcement, because the measures come into force automatically at the end of the year.
Unless an extension to the Brexit transition period is sought by June, a newly obstructive border will appear between UK ports and the EU single market next January. Customs checks will separate Northern Ireland from mainland Britain. The effect will be delays, costs and a decline in trade volumes.
This is not a worst-case scenario in the event that Mr Johnson fails to sign a free-trade agreement in Brussels, but is factored into his model for any deal. The pinnacle of his ambition is a Canada-style model, which is far removed from the seamless arrangements currently in place. Even if most tariffs and quotas are eliminated, there would be checks and friction at the border.
The prospect of completing the necessary systems to implement that regime in the time available looked fanciful even before the coronavirus crisis struck. The economic rationale for doing it was dubious then, too. Honouring that deadline when a publichealth emergency demands that every aspect of government be reworked, reviewed or suspended is scarcely comprehensible.
A round of Brexit negotiations due to be held in London next week has already been cancelled. Officials on both sides of the Channel have more urgent matters to attend to, which in itself is a measure of the scale of the crisis, since the urgency of settling UK-EU relations is not diminished. On the contrary, the prospect of administering a gratuitous economic shock – as every credible analysis of a hard Brexit forecasts – would represent an extraordinary dereliction of duty by the prime minister, who has an available mechanism to avoid it.
There might be two reasons why Mr Johnson refrains from hitting the pause button, neither of which is good. One is the fear of looking weak in the eyes of zealous Eurosceptics. Another is if he shares the belief, espoused by those same zealots, that tearing UK businesses out of EU markets can be done without cost – and might even have tonic effects. That myth was generated in a different era, born of ideological allergy to continental regulation coupled with a romantic notion of Britain as a buccaneering sole trader. Such complacency must be shaken now that many UK enterprises are facing a new and unforeseen calamity. Perhaps the practical merits of continuity in trade might at last impose themselves on the Conservatives, who previously relished disruption for its own sake. Mr Johnson’s gung-ho Eurosceptic rhetoric once suggested indifference to risk, but in response to coronavirus he appears to have discovered a new capacity to engage with evidence and a new flexibility in economic policy.
Such pragmatism must be applied also to the Brexit question. An extension to the transition period will surely have to be sought. Only obsolete doctrine and the prime minister’s vanity are against it. Those obstacles can and must be set aside.