The Guardian view on the government’s coronavirus gamble: winter will come
In Aesop’s fable, the ant uses summer to prepare for the bleak months to come, while the grasshopper idles its time away, only to regret it as temperatures plummet. England must hope Boris Johnson remembers the tale, since as of Wednesday he had not managed more immediately relevant reading: the report commissioned by his chief scientific adviser, warning that a second wave of coronavirus this winter could kill up to 120,000 people in the worst-case scenario.
Had he taken the time to study the document, he might have been less quick to make Friday’s rash assessment that this could all be over by Christmas. True, Mr Johnson made no promises. But he was clear that he hoped for a “return to normality”. A grasshopper by nature, he sang a merry tune: of the resumption of indoor performances, sports events with spectators and conferences in October if pilots go to plan, and even of distancing perhaps being dropped in November. The first minister of Wales, Mark Drakeford, described that outlook as a “pretty sunny view” of the expert advice.
Most concerning is the scrapping, from 1 August, of the advice to avoid public transport, and to work from home if possible – though the chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, had told MPs on Thursday that there was “absolutely no reason” to change the latter guidance. His remarks may explain Mr Johnson’s relatively muted announcement, suggesting it was up to employers, in discussion with workers, to decide when people should return to the premises. But it has not halted the shift. Sir Patrick and Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, were absent from Mr Johnson’s press conference. All three stressed on Friday that the decisions are taken by politicians.
The policy is now driven by business, not science. Lockdown has had punitive effects on many people’s health and wellbeing as well as their economic status. But Iain Duncan Smith’s warnings that without drastic changes “our towns and cities will die” must be weighed against the risk that with them friends and loved ones will die. Throughout, the public have been more cautious than the government; but workers are largely subject to the demands of their bosses. And though Mr Johnson uses “Covid-secure” as his caveat for relaxation, this is a goal and not a guarantee of safety.
The government is now counting upon local lockdowns – ranging from the closure of specific premises through to full stay-at-home orders – and an expansion of the testing programme. But lockdowns can have punitive effects, which will be felt all the more in affected areas after the furlough scheme is wound down. And while England’s performance on testing and tracing may be improving, there is a long way to go. Last month an independent group of scientists warned that the system in place was not fit for purpose. Reopening has also begun while a significant level of infection remains, albeit far below the peak. England reported 66 deaths on Thursday; Scotland, which has pursued a much tougher approach, has reported one death in the past week.
As the prime minister acknowledged, the global picture offers grim evidence of what happens when you get it wrong. India has reached a million cases; Brazil, two million. The US, which lurched into premature reopening, has just set a new daily record of more than 77,000 cases. Mr Johnson’s autumn dates may be pencilled in, but there will be pressure to stick to them, lifting restrictions just as flu season will be beginning. “In winter, the challenges will be very much greater,” Sir Patrick told a House of Lords committee on Friday.
The government promises the largest ever flu vaccination programme, as well as a £3bn boost for the NHS to keep the Nightingale hospitals open and increase testing capacity. But much more needs to be done to prepare; both Sir Patrick and Mr Whitty stressed to the committee the need for proper investment in public health. The government’s record does anything but inspire confidence about the months ahead. While the ants on the frontline toil away, England’s approach looks more like a grasshopper’s gamble than a strategy.