Arizona race could give Democrats extra Senate seat for supreme court fight
If he wins a US Senate seat in Arizona, the former astronaut Mark Kelly could take office as early as 30 November, an outcome which might jeopardize the launch of Donald Trump’s third supreme court nominee.
The Democratic candidate has maintained a polling lead over the Republican Martha McSally, who was appointed to the seat held by John McCain, who died in 2018.
Because the contest is a special election to finish McCain’s term, the winner could be sworn in as soon as the results are certified. Other winners in November’s contest, in which Democrats hope to retake the Senate, will not take office until January.
Trump has pledged to nominate a replacement for Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who died on Friday, and the Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, has vowed that the nominee “will receive a vote on the floor of the United States Senate”.
If Kelly wins, when he takes office could be crucial in deciding the ensuing nomination fight. Republicans currently hold the chamber by 53 seats to 47. The prospect of falling to 52 could prompt McConnell to speed up the nomination process.
With McSally in the Senate, four defections would defeat a nomination. A tie vote could be broken by Mike Pence.
Within hours of the announcement of Ginsberg’s death, McSally declared that “this US Senate should vote on President Trump’s next nominee for the US supreme court”. She has not elaborated on whether the vote should come before or after the election. But she highlighted the renewed stakes of her race in a fundraising pitch on Saturday.
“If Mark Kelly comes out on top, HE could block President Trump’s supreme court Nominee from being confirmed,” McSally wrote.
In the 2018 midterms, Democrats found success in Arizona, long dominated by the GOP, by appealing to Republicans and independents disaffected with Trump. The supreme court vacancy could boost McSally by keeping those voters in her camp.
Kelly said late on Saturday: “The people elected to the presidency and Senate in November should fill this vacancy. When it comes to making a lifetime appointment to the supreme court, Washington shouldn’t rush that process for political purposes.”
Arizona law requires election results to be certified on the fourth Monday after the election, which falls this year on 30 November. The certification could be delayed up to three days if the state has not received election results from any of its 15 counties.
Mary O’Grady, a Democratic lawyer, said the deadlines are firm.
“I don’t see ambiguity here,” said O’Grady, Arizona’s solicitor general under two Democratic attorneys general, adding that state law allows recounts and election challenges only under very limited circumstances.
Former Senate historian Don Ritchie told the Arizona Republic, which first reported on the prospect for Kelly taking office early a day before Ginsburg’s death: “Usually, the secretary of the Senate’s office goes out of its way to accommodate the new senators coming in.
“The old senator is out of their office there. I mean, they actually literally put a lock on the door so their staff can’t go in.”