The virtual Tory conference was a gift to Johnson – he managed to avoid his party
An empty hall, with no overly enthusiastic ministers in sight or bespectacled Tory activists on hand to cheer: this year’s Conservative conference was billed as Boris Johnson’s worst nightmare. A politician who has spent his career trading on his ability to rally a crowd had to give a leader’s speech with no audience, attempting to offer optimism looking down the camera lens. At moments like this, of all prime ministers who could have had their premiership dominated by social distancing, Johnson seems the least suited.
Yet as this year’s Tory conference draws to a close, several of Johnson’s colleagues are in truth relieved the event ended up being a virtual one. Although the website crashed, MPs complained about Zoom call capacity, and the virtual stalls failed to make a splash, the online format did allow the prime minister one conference win: Johnson managed to avoid his own party.
Party conferences tend to amplify existing dynamics. When David Cameron took to the stage in 2014, his party was given a welcome reminder that despite the deadlocked polls, Cameron was an electoral asset. In 2017, Theresa May’s cough-ridden performance became a metaphor for her failing premiership
With knives out for Johnson on the backbenches over everything from coronavirus restrictions to planning reforms, this year’s event would have been a high-stakes affair. As one seasoned Tory puts it: “Angry MPs and alcohol are rarely a good combination for No 10”. Locking up frustrated MPs and party members in a conference centre with the press for four days straight would have been a recipe for disaster, according to one government aide.
Most importantly, a physical conference would have revealed unrest in the Conservative party that runs deeper than the House of Commons. Just as the nature of a socially distanced parliament meant it took longer for the cracks in party discipline to become clear, the same can be said of morale across the membership.
It’s often assumed that Boris Johnson is extremely popular with the grassroots. When he ran for the Tory leadership not once but twice, his rivals and his supporters agreed that his weakness would be exposed in the parliamentary rounds rather than the final round decided by the party membership. Johnson has never really had a big parliamentary tribe to which he belongs – something that has become clearer in recent months, with no faction of the party particularly loyal in times of difficulty.
With the grassroots, Johnson has long been a favourite. In the final ConservativeHome members’ poll of 2019 ranking cabinet ministers’ popularity, Johnson was on top with an approval rating of +92.5. So the poll that should worry his supporters the most right now is not Johnson’s sliding popularity with the country, or even the dwindling confidence in his coronavirus response – but that of the Tory party membership. A ConservativeHome poll at the weekend showed that the prime minister is in negative ratings, and a poll of party members found that Johnson had a net satisfaction of -10.3. The only minister more unpopular than the prime minister? Gavin Williamson – the beleaguered education secretary.
One minister argues that had the conference gone as planned, Johnson could have been confronted with dissatisfied local party chairmen venting about the government’s coronavirus response. “It would have just added to No 10 and No 11 tensions,” they explain. “Everyone rallying around Rishi [Sunak], and Boris left in the shade.”
According to MPs, dissatisfaction among the membership is largely down to the handling of coronavirus. It roughly falls into two camps. First, the “good-timers” who think it’s all a mess – as a result of coronavirus, there is no clarity of direction in pandemic handling and the rules are too confusing. This group would have loved Johnson’s speeches in happier times, but find they fall flat when the going gets tough.
The second group are the lockdown sceptics – found in a higher volume in the Tory party than the wider population. This group look to Sweden – recently added to the government’s airbridge list – where there has been no national lockdown, and argue this is a viable alternative to Johnson’s lockdown strategy. Supported by MPs such as Steve Baker, they ask: why is Johnson not taking this option?
Not helping either camp is Johnson’s reluctance to have a conversation with his party on coronavirus. His conference speech barely touched what the pandemic will mean for the next few months. The hope in government is that, given the virus is the main cause of concern among supporters, time ought to prove the great healer. Johnson’s promise to get MPs “cheek by jowl” by next year’s event – with no social distancing in place – was an attempt to suggest there is an end in sight.
However, dwindling confidence in his government’s ability means some MPs read that comment as an attempt to move the goalposts – to push the date of a return to normality back even later than six months from now. Recent visitors to the prime minister report that Johnson’s message to frustrated supporters is to stick with him through the next few months of coronavirus misery, and in return expect big Toryfriendly policies to follow.
What Johnson has on his side is that there is no immediate threat to his leadership. A lot of the backbench complaints are just noise. One senior Tory strategist close to Downing Street takes the view that while the situation is “shit”, MPs will eventually work out their only option is Johnson and rally behind him.
But it’s a strategy that carries risk if things don’t improve in the next six months. “The danger point is the spring,” says a member of government, who backed Johnson in the leadership. “He needs to show light at the end of the tunnel.” Not only is the spring the crunch point for No 10’s coronavirus strategy – the point by which Johnson expects a medical breakthrough – it’s