Trump may try to steal the election. We need to start preparing for that now
Donald Trump has told us openly that he is planning to steal the election. In recent months he has explicitly declared that any election in which he does not win will have been rigged and illegitimate. He has claimed repeatedly and against all evidence that mail-in ballots are invalid. He and his allies in the US Senate are rushing a hardright nominee through the US supreme court in order to ensure that the court will declare him the victor if there is any uncertainty in the results. VicePresident Mike Pence refused to say what he would do if Trump refused to accept the election results in his recent debate with Senator Kamala Harris. And, most notoriously, Trump has ominously encouraged neo-fascist goons like the Proud Boys to “stand back and stand by”.
There has been remarkably little discussion of how to stop Trump. In the face of open declarations of plans to overthrow the tattered remnants of democracy in this country, American exceptionalism seems to have lulled many people into a false sense of complacency that a coup cannot happen in the US. But a coup will have taken place if all votes are not counted and honored, and Trump’s attacks on mail-in ballots suggests this is exactly the strategy he intends to pursue.
Seeking to challenge our complacency, commentators such as Thomas Friedman have warned that we should take Trump’s threats to steal the election seriously. But Friedman doesn’t say what we should actually do in the face of such threats beyond “help register someone to vote for Joe Biden”. The main plan to foil Trump’s plot to steal the election, articulated most forcefully by Jamelle Bouie, consists of mobilizing repentant swing voters in battleground states to turn out alongside the majority that did not elect Trump in 2016, producing an unstoppable landslide.
This is a good plan, but what if it doesn’t pan out because of interference at polling stations, legal machinations around mail-in ballots, or – in a worst
case scenario - Trump’s brazen refusal to accept defeat? Of course we should concentrate on getting out the vote, but given what we know about Trump’s intentions it would be prudent to have a Plan B.
According to the civil rights activist George Lakey, planning to defeat a coup can actually help reduce the chances of attempts to overthrow democracy since plotters are likely to think again if they know the public is well prepared. In addition, power grabs tend to succeed or fail in a matter of weeks or months. Scholars such as the political scientist Stephen Zunes, who studied a dozen attempted coups around the world since 1958, have shown that opposition forces that did not prepare for a coup often lost valuable time building alliances and mobilizing for action subsequently. Advance preparation often made a decisive difference in defeating coup attempts.
Here are some of the steps those who wish to defend democracy should take in the weeks we have left before the election:
First of all, begin conversations about what to do about a stolen election. Preparing for popular mobilization in the event that Trump clings to power illegitimately is essential because research has shown that people have beaten back power grabs successfully by massing in the streets and engaging in non-violent resistance. Fortunately a remarkable number of people and groups have risen up during the Trump presidency, including the Movement for Black Lives, climate justice activists, the immigrant rights movement, teacher and workers’ strikes, mutual aid organizations during the pandemic, and many more. Now is the time to forge stronger connections within and between these groups.
Organizations should also begin readying their members to resist a coup. They can draw on resources for planning that already exist, including a research-based manual for trainers helping groups in a pre-coup situation written by Richard K Taylor, who served on Martin Luther King Jr’s national staff.
Another concrete and immediate step that movements could adopt would be to circulate a pledge of resistance that lays out specific steps for their members to take if Trump refuses to leave office. Such a pledge would work to prepare people psychologically to resist a coup by naming it as such. It would help them make the psychic break from the confusing disinformation campaigns likely to be run from the White House and circulated through social media in the days after 3 November.
Another key step is to prepare strategic sectors of the workforce to challenge an illegitimate power grab. Most immediately, government workers should organize to strike in the event of a coup. Organizers and unions in other key sectors of the economy such as transportation should also begin planning actions. Ideally these disparate groups could coordinate their actions and build towards a series of rolling general strikes that would shut down the country until democracy is restored.
A general strike that brings people into the streets could be combined with debt strikes against what would be an illegitimate federal authority. Such actions would build on existing campaigns against the iniquitous character of neoliberal finance, which condemns many Americans who wish to pursue higher education or have health conditions to decades of debt peonage.
Activists could also prepare a citizen campaign calling on other nations to adopt an economic embargo of the US following a coup. We know from the embargo against the apartheid government in South Africa during the 1980s that such campaigns can be highly effective against a rogue regime, particularly when economic damage is combined with action against cultural sectors such as sports.
Many other strategies will surely arise as people organize to foil a coup. Plans such as these to mobilize people will not be in vain if Trump’s declared intention to remain in power turns out to be purely bluster. They will knit the fabric of democracy tighter no matter the outcome. If Trump wins the election legitimately, for example, we will need mass non-violent resistance in order to counter what is sure to be a stunningly regressive agenda over the next four years. And even if the election proceeds without a hitch and Biden is victorious, progressives will need to keep popular pressure on to win meaningful policies to address the climate crisis, police violence, and the myriad other problems that beset the US at present.
Come what may, we must not go unprepared into this dark night of democracy.
Ashley Dawson is professor of postcolonial studies at the City University of New York
Most immediately, government workers should organize to strike in the event of a coup