Whether Trump or Biden wins, US-China relations look set to worsen
Ties between China and the US have reached their lowest point in decades ahead of the election in November, signalling what experts in both countries believe is the clear direction for one of the most important bilateral relationships in the world.
Under the Trump administration, the US has put sanctions on Chinese officials over human rights issues in Xinjiang and Hong Kong while also increasing engagement with Taiwan, including arms sales. A trade deal to end a protracted tariff war has stalled and the US has placed more restrictions on Chinese state media.
Biden, who in a presidential debate referred to the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, as one of several “thugs” Trump has cosied up to, has also promised to take a strong stance against China.
“The China-US relationship will not go back to where it was before,” said Cheng Xiaohe, an associate professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing. “The relationship is so bad.”
It is a view shared in the US. “Regardless of who wins the US presidential election, we should expect to see increasing US-China tensions across a broad range of economic, political, geo-strategic, human rights and people-to people issues for the years to come,” said Wendy Cutler, former acting deputy at the Office of the US Trade Representative, focusing on Asia.
Hong Kong and Taiwan are particular flash points. In response to Beijing imposing a controversial national security law in Hong Kong, the Trump administration placed sanctions on officials connected to the crackdown, downgraded the city’s special customs status and warned financial institutions against conducting “significant” transactions with anyone deemed to have undermined Hong Kong’s autonomy.
In Taiwan the US has sent highlevel government visitors, drawing recrimination from Beijing, increased military exercises in the region and launched a new economic dialogue with Taipei. There have been calls for the US to end its policy of “strategic ambiguity”, a way of discouraging both Beijing and Taipei from making a military move by refusing to say if the US would come to Taiwan’s aid.
“The mutual distrust has never been higher,” said Bonnie Glaser, director of the China Power Project at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. “I think many in China think the US has basically abandoned its one-China policy,” she said, referring to Beijing’s view that Taiwan is part of China.
While tensions will persist under a Biden administration, the key difference, observers expect, will be in approach. Biden has pledged to work with allies to pressure China through the multilateral organisations that Trump has eschewed. Analysts expect the Democratic candidate, if elected, to work with China on issues such as climate change and response to the pandemic.
“We need to be having the rest of our friends with us, saying to China: ‘We play by the rules. You play by them or you are going to pay the price for not playing by them, economically’,” Biden said in Thursday’s debate against Trump.
In contrast, Trump is expected to continue a more confrontational, unilateral strategy that is likely to raise tensions. While Trump’s approach is likely to place more immediate pressure on China, Biden’s is seen by others as more predictable and comprehensive.
A second term for Trump heralds unpredictability in a number of ways. During the initial years of his presidency, Trump spoke admiringly of Xi and was seen by experts in China as “a businessman ready to make deals and not focused on human rights,” according to Jacques deLisle, director of the Center for the Study of Contemporary China at the University of Pennsylvania.
A trade deal, previously seen as his top priority in relation to China, could take precedent over human rights. Last year Trump described pro-democracy protests as “riots”. According to his former national security adviser John Bolton, Trump told Xi to “go ahead building the camps” in Xinjiang, describing the mass internment campaign as “exactly the right thing to do”.
Some optimists in China believe another four years of Trump would give both countries time to negotiate a trade deal. Still, others believe there is poten
tial for ties to dramatically worsen. “The current situation couldn’t be any worse. If it does get worse, military conflict is near,” said Cheng.
Beijing has so far responded to the Trump administration’s various moves with reciprocal measures that limit escalating tensions. Four more years of Trump coinciding with an increasingly aggressive Chinese leadership could end that restraint.
“It is possible that China has been gritting its teeth and not reacting to Trump provocations during what may be the final months of the administration. With a reelection, all bets would be off on that front,” said deLisle.
For hawks in China another term for Trump is ideal. In China, state media have portrayed the pandemic in the US, Black Lives Matter protests and the chaos of the first presidential debate as yet more examples of the failing American democratic experiment.
“While China is worried about Trump’s aggressiveness over the shortterm, it also believes that over the longterm he is accelerating American decline,” said Rush Doshi, director of the Brookings China Strategy Initiative.
Few in China however saw much difference between the two candidates as they met for their final debate. Under a clip posted on Weibo, one commentator observed: “These two should be enjoying their twilight years, not exposing their flaws in public.” Another wrote: “US comedians have taken the stage.”
As that debate got underway, Xi gave a lengthy speech to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the war to “resist US aggression and aid Korea” between 1950 and 1953.
Speaking in the Great Hall of the People, Xi said Chinese people had learned to “speak to invaders in a language they understand.”
He declared: “The Chinese people will not create trouble but nor are we afraid of them, and no matter the difficulties or challenges we face, our legs will not shake and our backs will not bend.”