Who will – and should – win the 2021 Grammy awards?
Record of the year
Beyoncé – Black ParadeBlack Pumas – ColorsDaBaby – Rockstar (feat Roddy Ricch)Doja Cat – Say SoBillie Eilish – Everything I WantedDua Lipa – Don’t Start NowPost Malone – CirclesMegan Thee Stallion – Savage (feat Beyoncé)
Beyoncé didn’t release an album this year, but she is still top of this year’s Grammy nominations with nine across eight different categories. It’s testament to her versatility as well as the lyrical potency of Black Parade, a poetic vision of her becoming entwined with her African roots and becoming impervious to racial hatred: “Rubber bullets bouncing off me / Made a picket sign off your picket fence.” It wasn’t a hit, though, and while her delivery – more stately and queenly than ever – is hardwon and inspiring, the music and chorus-writing isn’t as arresting as the lyrics or her mellifluous vocal delivery.
Split votes with Savage will also hurt her chances, and as Billie Eilish won this award last year on the way to sweeping the board, voters might look elsewhere besides. Doja Cat’s Say So was rightly a pop-cultural phenomenon, though Dr Luke’s involvement in it will be controversial: the producer has long denied any impropriety as alleged by Kesha, but nominee Fiona Apple has been among those loudly protesting his presence on this ballot. The cop-baiting Rockstar cleanly connected in 2020 and DaBaby’s star quality could fill a constellation, but rap is rarely rewarded in this category and his past run-ins with the law may also turn off more conservative Academy members. Dua Lipa, then, could clinch this, and indeed should: Don’t Start Now’s hedonism arguably doesn’t chime with a pandemic, but pop doesn’t get better than this perfect, headspinning hit. There’s very little daylight between most of these nominees, though.Will win: Dua LipaShould win: Dua Lipa
Album of the year
Jhené Aiko – ChilomboBlack Pumas – Black PumasColdplay – Everyday LifeJacob Collier – Djesse Vol 3Haim – Women in Music Pt IIIDua Lipa – Future NostalgiaPost Malone – Hollywood’s BleedingTaylor Swift – Folklore
This feels like the easiest win to call. Folklore’s sudden arrival, rich songwriting, grandly realised aesthetic and popcultural clout made it a true album event, and her numerous nominations this year suggest that perhaps the Academy is ready to embrace the twotime winner of this category once more after scorning her last two albums.
Also, unlike in some of the qualitystuffed categories below, it’s a wobbly year here, with only three truly classic LPs: Swift, Lipa and my own favourite, Haim’s loose, varied, casually omnipotent display of high-fidelity lo-fi. But the Grammys often make bafflingly bad calls in this category: Beck beat Beyoncé. Mumford & Sons beat Frank Ocean. Herbie Hancock’s Joni Mitchell covers album beat Amy Winehouse and Kanye West. Decent-enough releases by Bruno Mars, Daft Punk and Taylor Swift were deemed better than Kendrick Lamar’s trio of masterpieces. Jacob Collier could end up edging this, for all I know.Will win: Taylor SwiftShould win: Haim
Song of the year
Beyoncé – Black ParadeRoddy Ricch – The BoxTaylor Swift – CardiganPost Malone – CirclesDua Lipa – Don’t Start
NowBillie Eilish – Everything I WantedHER – I Can’t BreatheJP Saxe – If the World Was Ending (feat Julia Michaels)
It’s a loose rubric, but this award homes in on lyrics and melody rather than the overall produced product heralded in the record of the year category. Thus there is room for If the World Was Ending, which is deeply corny but its tale of a small earthquake triggering apocalyptic, lovelorn thoughts is nonetheless affecting, and speaks strongly to the pandemic; Taylor Swift does this sentimental storytelling better still. HER’s diatribe against the injustices and hypocrisies of white America is dynamite, though its music is a relatively perfunctory platform for it; language, in all its percussion, music and meaning, is the best thing about the equally pointed Black Parade. The Box is another stunning display of linguistic musicality and would be a deserved (if surprising) winner. But this is where Eilish could triumph despite last year’s wins: Everything I Wanted is a deeply moving song that miraculously conjures the liminal state between dream and nightmare created by fame, and an example of how something intensely personal – it’s about the support of her brother and creative partner Finneas – can be made universal.Will win: Billie EilishShould win: Billie Eilish
Best new artist
Ingrid AndressPhoebe BridgersChikaNoah CyrusD SmokeDoja CatKaytranadaMegan Thee Stallion
Some odd choices here, particularly when you consider DaBaby should be winning this category and isn’t even nominated. Equally, you could argue that one of the more useful, less selfcongratulatory roles of the Academy should be in breaking lesser-known artists, and the likes of Ingrid Andress and Chika are worthy inclusions. Phoebe Bridgers’ candid indie-rock has had a huge impact on a generation of young women – indeed, young women are now by far the most interesting proponents of the style – but bigger still has been the tag team of Doja Cat and Megan Thee Stallion. The former’s facility with earworms has made her the darling of TikTok and her superb debut album is still popping out viral hits; but the latter, with her proud sexuality, propulsive flow and infectious female empowerment, will surely take this.Will win: Megan Thee StallionShould win: Megan Thee Stallion
Best pop solo performance
Justin Bieber – YummyDoja Cat – Say SoBillie Eilish – Everything I WantedDua Lipa – Don’t Start NowHarry Styles – Watermelon SugarTaylor Swift