Democrats search for a path forward as key deadlines loom
With the fate of Joe Biden’s domestic agenda on the line, Democrats searched furiously for a path forward after negotiations over a once-in-a-generation expansion of the social safety net neared collapse and a vote on a smaller public works measure appeared increasingly unlikely.
With almost no margin for error and little time left to break an impasse that threatens to imperil its passage – and possibly the entirety of the president’s program – Democrats charged ahead on Thursday, even as a crucial Democratic holdout called for shrinking the $3.5tn plan in half. But assurances of progress offered little comfort to nervous Democrats on Capitol Hill, where a series of legislative and fiscal deadlines loom.
“We’re obviously at a precarious and important time in these discussions,” the White House press secretary, Jen Psaki, told reporters on Wednesday, as Biden spent the day locked in negotiations with Democratic leadership and lawmakers.
Nancy Pelosi, the House speaker, insisted on Thursday morning that she was prepared to move ahead with a vote later in the day. “So far, so good for today,” she said at an unusually crowded press conference. “It’s going in a positive direction.”
“We’re on a path to win the vote,” she added.
The cautiously optimistic tone reflected the fluid nature of the negotiations after Pelosi previously left open the possibility that she could delay a Thursday vote on the infrastructure bill while the president worked to secure an agreement with two centrist holdouts on his broader social policy package that aims to fulfill Democrats’ promise to reshape the American economy.
Congress did meet one critical deadline, after the House and Senate approved a short-term funding bill that averted a government shutdown at midnight by funding federal agencies through 3 December.
At the center of the uncertainty are centrist senators Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona. Both have said that the price tag of Biden’s agenda is too high, but to the immense frustration of their colleagues, have not publicly outlined what they would be comfortable with spending. Compromise is the only way forward for Democrats, who need every vote in the Senate and nearly every vote in the House.
In a statement on Wednesday, Manchin reiterated his opposition to the current spending package, saying it amounted to “fiscal insanity”. Then, speaking to reporters on Thursday, he said he would not support a package that cost more than $1.5tn – less than half the size of the package Biden and Democrats are seeking – warning that any more spending risked “changing our whole society to an entitlement mentality”. The president was aware of his red line, he said.
The scaled-down offer would likely be a nonstarter with progressives, who say they have already made significant concessions.
“What do they want to cut? Childcare for families that desperately need it? Do they want to not address the climate crisis for a future generation? Do they not want homecare programs for our seniors and the disabled?” Congresswoman Ilhan Omar, a progressive from Minnesota, said in an appearance on MSNBC. “These are the conversations we’re waiting to have.”
Manchin’s position makes it unlikely that Democrats will reach a deal by Thursday, when Pelosi wants the House to vote on the Senatepassed infrastructure bill, which would spend billions of dollars upgrading the nation’s roads, bridges and broadband. Asked by reporters if he was confident the vote would happen on Thursday, House majority leader Steny Hoyer replied: “Nope.”
That leaves Democratic leaders in a time-sensitive bind, partially of their own making. They initially promised progressives that they would advance the infrastructure and social policy bills in tandem. At the same time, Pelosi told centrists that she would bring a vote on the infrastructure bill to the floor this week. But with Manchin and Sinema objecting to the cost of the social spending proposal, Pelosi said she was forced to shift strategy. Now she is asking her caucus to move ahead with the infrastructure bill while Biden and the senators search for a compromise.
The social policy bill could be transformative for millions of American families. Though the details are fluid and the overall package almost certain to shrink, the proposed legislation would extend the child tax credit, establish universal pre-K education, create a federally paid family and medical leave system, in addition to an array of programs to combat the climate crisis and transition the country toward renewable energy. The plan would be paid for by trillions of dollars in tax increases on the wealthiest Americans and corporations.
Democrats are attempting to enact the social policy bill using a fast-track procedural rule known as reconciliation to shield it from the Senate filibuster, which requires 60 votes to pass most legislation.
The move to decouple the groundbreaking legislation from Thursday’s infrastructure bill vote has infuriated progressives, who say they will sink the infrastructure vote if there is not an agreement on the broader package. In a sign of the deep mistrust within the party, congresswoman Pramila Jayapal of Washington, the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said she wanted to see the Senate approve the package first before supporting the smaller bill.
Complicating matters further, Sinema is saying she wants to see the infrastructure bill pass without delay, even as her objections to the larger bill risk delaying – or completely derailing – its passage.
Pelosi said there would need to be an agreement with Biden on the “legislative language” for his social policy bill before the vote on Thursday.
She added at the press conference: “I just told members of my leadership that the reconciliation bill was a culmination of my service in Congress … Remove all doubt in anyone’s mind that we will not have a reconciliation. We will have a reconciliation bill. That is for sure.”
As Democrats worked to salvage their ambitious plan, lawmakers made little progress toward resolving the stalemate over the debt ceiling. In a largely party-line vote on Wednesday night, the House approved legislation that would suspend the debt limit through 16 December. The bill advances to a vote the Senate, where the path to overcoming Republican obstruction remains unclear.
The brinkmanship has pushed the country dangerously close to financial calamity, and yet both sides appear dug in. Republicans want to force Democrats to raise the debt ceiling on their own by using the reconciliation process to circumvent the filibuster. Schumer called the position hypocritical, arguing that Republicans have a responsibility to help raise the debt limit as Democrats did on three occasions during the Trump administration.
Schumer said: “As default gets closer and closer to becoming a reality, our Republican colleagues will be forced to ask themselves how long they are going to keep playing political games while the economic stability of our country is at risk.”
But on Thursday the Senate minority leader, Mitch McConnell, insisted that Democrats have plenty of time to raise the debt ceiling without Republican votes by using a budget reconciliation procedure. “This may inconvenient for them, but it is totally possible,” McConnell said. “This Democratic government must not manufacture an avoidable crisis.”
Even if those urgent problems are resolved, the questions over Biden’s agenda remain with the White House and Democratic leaders racing against the clock to strike a deal. With little room for error, Biden continued his personal outreach to reluctant Democrats as some members doubled down publicly in TV interviews and on Twitter. Even if a consensus is reached, the laborious task of trimming and finalizing the bills remains.
Asked whether Democrats could pull it off, Psaki told reporters to stay tuned.
“It’s like an episode of a TV show,” she said, of the high-stakes negotiations. But which show depends on what happens next.
“Maybe the West Wing if something good happens,” she said. “Maybe Veep if not.”