The Guardian view on Boris Johnson: odds shorten on a vote of no confidence
The Conservative party has a reputation for being ruthless when it comes to disposing of leaders of whom it despairs. Margaret Thatcher was dispatched when her flagship policy turned into a political disaster. David Cameron jumped before he was pushed after losing the Brexit vote. Theresa May was pulled down following humiliating Commons defeats. Just two years after a famous election victory, Boris Johnson is possibly next in line to be humbled.
The reason is not so much the scandals that have been lapping at Downing Street’s door for months. It is that even while dripping in fluid from the swamp, Mr Johnson’s instinct is not to be honest and accountable. That is why the prime minister has made a fool of his standards adviser, Lord Geidt, who believed his claim that he knew nothing about how the refurbishment of his No 10 flat was being funded when – WhatsApp messages revealed this week – he did.
What has unsettled Tory MPs is not that Mr Johnson is lying to voters or his staff, but that he has been lying to them. This makes next week dangerous for the prime minister. If a government with an 80-seat majority has to rely on the votes of the Labour opposition because it is split over pandemic restrictions, it will be on thin ice. If this is followed by the loss of a leave-voting rural seat in a byelection, the Tory party could embark on a civil war with only one outcome: the replacement of its leader.
While the odds are shortening on a vote of no confidence, they remain long enough for Mr Johnson to hunker down in No 10. He might hope that Tory MPs will cut a new father some slack. With Christmas looming, Mr Johnson may believe politics could be reset after the holidays. The toxic charge for voters is that there is one rule for Downing Street and another for the public. This is hard to dodge for Mr Johnson: while ordinary people were being prosecuted for breaching Covid rules, his staff were apparently celebrating behind closed doors.
Someone will probably have to pay when the cabinet secretary’s inquiry into last year’s festivities is released. Mr Johnson is an expert at shifting blame. Rather than taking responsibility for mistakes, he has a history of throwing allies under the bus. That might be why Downing Street’s press chief, Jack Doyle, who reportedly gave a speech at the Christmas party he denied had happened, remains in post.
Sinking opinion polls suggest some voters have realised that Mr Johnson wears a clown’s mask to conceal his Machiavellian side. Rather than give the prime minister the benefit of the doubt, a growing slice of the electorate sees lies, not clever wordplay. Instead of laughing along, they realise they are being laughed at.
The dysfunction within the Downing Street operation has been immensely damaging, with tensions laid bare by Mr Johnson’s former consigliere Dominic Cummings. The prime minister’s habit of making promises he has no intention of keeping is also catching up with him. The nature of the pandemic may have afforded Mr Johnson some leeway. However, many influential Tory MPs increasingly fret that the prime minister has frittered away his time in office with little to show but democratic backsliding.
It explains perhaps why, despite his majority, Mr Johnson inspires so little loyalty. No cabinet minister this week defended the prime minister, which only emboldened Conservative MPs to criticise him publicly. If cases of the Omicron variant continue to rise, stricter measures will be needed. Mr Johnson’s inability to win over either the party or the public may prove his undoing – and have grave consequences for the country far beyond Tory politics.