Three-quarters of those in UK with cold symptoms likely to have Covid – study
Three-quarters of people in the UK with new cold-like symptoms are likely to have Covid, but the rate of case growth is no longer exponential, scientists have said.
According to analysis by the Zoe Covid study, an estimated 75% of people experiencing new cold-like symptoms have symptomatic Covid-19.
This is up from about 50% last week, with the study reporting that the data showed a fall in the number of non-Covid “colds” and a rise in symptomatic coronavirus infections.
It also said the incidence figures show there are currently 192,290 new daily symptomatic cases of Covid-19 in the UK on average, based on test data from up to three days ago. That is up 33% from the 144,284 reported last week.
The study also found that while the increase in cases appeared to be slowing in those aged 55 and under, it was “rising sharply” in the 55- to 75-year-old age group.
It said this was “worrying” because the older age group was more at risk of needing hospital treatment.
Dr Claire Steves, a senior clinical lecturer at King’s College London and member of the Zoe Covid study team, said that while the number of daily new symptomatic Covid cases was more than double what it was this time last year, the rate of increase was no longer exponential.
However, she said that symptoms such as a sore throat, headache, and runny nose needed to be added to the government list of Covid symptoms as soon as possible.
Steves added: “The number of daily new symptomatic Covid cases are more than double what they were this time last year and we are just a day or two away from hitting over 200,000.
“However, the exponential growth in cases appears to have stopped, and the rise is more steady. Hospitalisation rates are thankfully much lower than this time last year, but they are still high, especially in London.
“It’s good news to see that fewer people are newly sick than a few weeks ago. However, the fact that 75% of new cold-like symptoms are Covid, and the classic symptoms are much less common, means the government advice needs to be urgently updated.
“We want to see symptoms like sore throat, headache and runny nose added to the list as soon as possible.”
The new figures, published on Thursday, come after a new record was set on Wednesday for the daily number of new coronavirus cases, as all four UK countries reported their figures on the same day for the first time since Christmas Eve.
The UK government said that a further 183,037 lab-confirmed Covid-19 cases had been recorded as of 9am on Wednesday. The total included reported figures for Northern Ireland covering a five-day period.
The 138,287 figure for England was also the highest recorded.
The Zoe Covid study also found that there were 78,748 new daily symptomatic cases in the vaccinated population – those with at least two doses – across the UK, up 40% from 56,346 last week.
It estimated that, on average, one in 32 people in the UK currently have symptomatic Covid, rising to one in 30 in England. In Wales it is one in 41, in Scotland it is one in 51, and in London one in 16 have symptomatic Covid, it added.
The Zoe study incidence figures are based on reports from about 840,000 weekly contributors.