Tory MPs in target seats fear political impact of fracking
Look at the map of onshore exploration licences in the UK, and you could be forgiven for thinking it was an illustration of target seats for opposition parties in the next general election.
Ministers privately acknowledge that “rethinking” fracking would be politically very difficult. Those areas most ripe for the controversial oil and gas extraction method are marginals in the “red wall” of constituencies in the north that historically have tended to be Labour, many of which were won by the Tories in 2019. Many of the others are former safe Conservative seats in the south where the Liberal Democrats are limbering up to pick off disillusioned former Tory voters.
When asked if they would support fracking in their constituencies, only five of the 138 MPs whose areas contained onshore exploration licences said they would, with 41 opposed. The remainder either did not reply or declined to comment.
Even those Conservatives who make positive noises about restarting fracking in principle are wary about saying they would like it in their area.
Kevin Hollinrake, Conservative MP for Thirsk and Malton, has been fullthroated in his support for fracking. However, when approached about whether he supported drilling in his constituency, he seemed more lukewarm on the issue.
“I have long been an advocate for producing our own gas rather than importing it,” he said. “I am supportive of fracking if it is safe. However, it is an intense and slow process due to the number of well sites that are required and there have been induced seismicity issues when this was tried previously. Resuming fracking would not solve the immediate crisis as it would take at least 10 years to produce the quantities of gas required to meet our needs.”
Similarly, Nigel Mills, the Conservative
MP for the Amber Valley in Derbyshire, has said fracking could be good for the UK’s energy independence but he did not support it in his constituency. He said: “Fracking should only take place away from where people live and so there are no suitable sites in Amber Valley.”
Even MPs in the Net Zero Scrutiny Group have reservations about fracking in their areas. The MP for Blackpool South, Scott Benton, has said he would be reluctant to allow fracking in his constituency because of the earthquakes it had caused in the past.
Joe Twyman, founder of the polling company Deltapoll, said this attitude tracked his research on public opinion about fracking. The most recent surveys on the issue, he said, showed that while people were often positive about the principle of fracking, they did not want it happening in their area.
Twyman said intense arguments about infrastructure could often have a large impact locally, and that could cost the Conservatives seats.
“As we have seen with HS2, important local factors that are sometimes unique to a constituency, can have a significant impact on voting. Fracking is the kind of issue that has the potential to have a similar impact, if not larger. Consistently a majority of the British public have been opposed to the idea of fracking in their local area and it is unlikely that recent developments around energy security will change that,” Twyman said.
The Labour party has already seized on worries over the government’s potential U-turn on fracking, releasing their own energy plan which is focused on renewables, and emphatically rejecting the idea of onshore drilling.
Ed Miliband, the shadow climate change and net zero minister, said: “Fracking is the wrong choice for Doncaster and it is the wrong choice for our country. It is unsafe, expensive, and does not command public support. Instead, we need a clean energy sprint, by accelerating homegrown renewable and nuclear energy – the cleaner, cheaper choice.
“Labour has a plan to expand wind, solar, and wave power, as well as a home insulation plan to bring down energy bills. This is the best route to tackle the climate crisis, the cost of living crisis, and our energy security crisis together. We need a clean energy sprint for national energy independence and sovereignty.”
In the south, the Lib Dems came
second to the Conservatives in many seats in areas with onshore exploration licences, including West Dorset, Mid Sussex, and Guildford. Local infrastructure concerns, such as HS2 and the government’s plans to relax planning laws to make it easier to build homes, have cost the Conservatives dearly in many southern constituencies.
Political campaigners in these areas seem aware that another shock to the Conservatives such as last year’s Chesham and Amersham byelection could be in store if shale drilling were allowed to take place in these constituencies.
At the time, the Lib Dems acknowledged that local anger over planning laws was a driving factor in their winning the previously safe Conservative seat.
But despite all this, the culture war is likely to rumble on, not least as there is a small but vocal group of backbenchers determined to have the argument on fracking.
One such MP is Christopher Chope. Perhaps put at ease by his majority of nearly 24,000, he has said he would support fracking in his constituency of Christchurch in Dorset.
Chope, who represents a seaside constituency with one of the most elderly electorates in the UK, said: “I am a strong advocate of the UK maximising its own energy resources to reduce dependency on foreign imports. This would be of enormous benefit to my constituents in the battle against rising energy costs in both the long and short term.”
However, even he added the careful caveat: “There should be no exceptions, but all new developments should be subject to planning permission.”