The Guardian view on Scotland’s May elections: Labour’s electoral gamble
Scottish voters will cast their votes on Thursday in 32 local election races. But it’s possible that no party will win majority control of a mainland council. This is partly by design. These elections use the single-transferable-vote (STV) system. Scots rank their preferences instead of being forced by a first-pastthe-post (FPTP) system to gamble on one party – often considered by voters as the least bad. By its nature, FPTP squashes small parties and leads to duopolies on power. In contrast, STV allocates seats more or less in line with the popular vote.
The electoral system is one reason that “coalitions of losers” often win Scottish local election races. Another is that Scottish politics remains polarised around national identity. The Greens’ decision to enter the SNP-led Scottish government encourages supporters of these two parties to give lower preferences to each other’s candidates. This would give the SNP potentially a big advantage over the unionist parties which have not tacitly – or explicitly – recommended that their backers give lower preference votes to the candidates of other pro-union parties. However, council elections are fought in the streets on bread and butter, rather than constitutional, issues.
Last month the Guardian highlighted North Ayrshire, run with a Labour minority. It was the first council in the UK to introduce free period products and the first in Scotland to put mental health counsellors in schools. These policies appealed to the young; a politically smart move when over-16s have the vote. Imitation, they say, is the sincerest form of flattery. Holyrood’s SNP government has taken North Ayrshire’ policies nationwide. Labour’s minority administration here works because – unusually in Scotland – the council is run on a cabinet system. North Ayrshire’s leftwing council leader, Joe Cullinane, in effect dares opposition councillors to reject popular policies. They rarely do. North Ayrshire even has a version of the “Preston model” where local public institutions spend more of a combined £1bn budget locally to enforce social goals.
National polls suggest the SNP is well ahead, with Labour the second most popular party. All eyes this week will be on Glasgow, once a Labour stronghold, now run by the SNP. With the cost of living crisis uppermost in voters’ minds and Scottish councils struggling after a decade of cuts under SNP rule, material concerns ought not to be relegated to just another front in the constitutional battle. Although the Tories have attacked library closures and Labour promises cheaper bus and train fares, the fight to be Scotland’s largest unionist party militates against subliminal cooperation.
Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, has ruled out formal coalitions with the SNP or the Tories after these elections. This strategy has proved unpopular with Labour councillors who have spent five years running coalition administrations. However, Mr Sarwar’s approach has been backed by Sir Keir Starmer. It is a gamble. In 2017’s local elections, polling shows seven in 10 Tory, Labour and SNP supporters used their transferable vote to express preferences for other parties. With Liberal Democrat supporters, the figure was even higher. If Scottish Labour cannot recover because of constitutional polarisation, it’s hard to see how Sir Keir can win a majority in Westminster. Labour is the largest party in only four Scottish councils – a tally that is behind the Conservatives. Mr Sarwar’s bet will have paid off if Labour reverses its fall.