Russia’s war is now focused and defensive. Ukraine must prepare for a tough winter
Heavy rains in Ukraine are bringing the twice yearly rasputitsa, when mud breaks up unpaved tracks and makes many almost impassable; even tanks may be confined to the roads. Vehicle routes become predictable, and more easily targeted by artillery or drone and airstrikes. Snow and ice will follow in December, causing their own problems. Lack of foliage in wooded areas makes concealment from ubiquitous drones difficult, but by the same token, increased cloud cover will impede much aerial reconnaissance. Supplies and ammunition – including artillery shells – will take longer to arrive and will come in smaller quantities.
In short, winter means everything slows down. The Ukrainian style of war, relying on speed and surprise, will lose much of its tempo. And above all, soldiers, like everyone else, focus on keeping warm. General Winter is coming. Russian troops, under new leadership, will attempt to freeze the lines in place and hold them. The Ukrainians, although they have surprised us before, will probably be unable to execute the kind of dashing operations we saw over the last eight months.
Other changes are afoot. Russia’s new unified command structures, under the recently appointed General Sergei Surovikin, seem, at the very least, to have rationalised their chaotic organisation and operations. There are signs of a more coherent approach. This can be seen in Kyiv, with the missile strikes in early October. Earlier in the conflict, Russia’s unfocused attacks – often hitting targets in cities seemingly at random – depleted Russia’s limited arsenal of precision missiles and gained