The future of American democracy is at stake in the midterm elections
Midterm elections are generally seen as less important than presidential elections. The stakes seem lower, which means fewer people turn out to vote. Most of the time the party controlling the White House takes losses, and this predictability can make midterms seem less important too: what can one voter do against the strength of the political tides? But occasionally there are midterms whose stakes rise beyond whether or not the president’s party will be able to pass new laws, and instead concern the whole future of the American republic. This year is one of them.
That’s because this year, the majority of Republican candidates running for Congress, governor’s mansions, and other key statewide offices have denied or questioned the results of the 2020 presidential election. Donald Trump’s attempted coup failed in 2020 because officeholders at the federal and state level refused to go along with it. This year’s midterm elections could change all of that, producing a set of Republican officials willing to extinguish American democracy.
There have been several other midterms in American history which foreshadowed chaos and violence to come. In 1858, the anti-slavery Republican party won a plurality in the House of Representatives, exacerbating the divisions which would lead to the civil war. In 1874, the Democratic party won a massive majority in the House, which turned out to be enormously consequential amid the contested election of 1876. In return for not attempting to block the inauguration of the Republican candidate Rutherford B Hayes,
House Democrats demanded the withdrawal of federal troops from the south, ending Reconstruction.
Both of these midterms were momentous, but they also differed from our present situation. Abraham Lincoln’s election in 1860 rent the Union, but nobody doubted that he had been legitimately elected president. On the other hand, widespread violence and fraud meant that the election of 1876 was genuinely contested, and even today the question of “who really won?” is difficult to answer. The end of Reconstruction had horrific consequences for African Americans in the south, but the basic institution of competitive elections lived on, and with it the possibility for future change.
Never before in American history has there been an organized movement which was only one vote away from having the motivation and opportunity to make that election America’s last. Never that is, until now. Today’s anti-democratic movement is propelled not by genuine controversy or scandal, but rather by their commitment to ending competitive elections in the United States. There is no other way to interpret their belief that only one side, the Republicans, can legitimately be considered to win, and the plans that they hold to make this belief a reality.
The problems can be expected to start this November, when Republican candidates who lose will question the validity of the results and try to stir unrest. State officials who do win will begin to act on their plans to sabotage future polls by centralizing power in their own offices, de-registering millions of voters, and moving to errorprone hand-counting systems. Then, if voter suppression doesn’t prevent a Democratic win in 2024, they’ll just suppress the evidence instead and announce that they are sending Republican electors to the electoral college. Meanwhile, the majority of Republican House candidates in 2022 are electiondeniers, and a Republican-controlled Congress might attempt to sabotage the certification of the presidential vote on 6 January 2025.
Each of these potential points of failure threatens the integrity of the 2024 presidential election. The breadth and depth of the anti-democratic movement also means that they are likely to pose other problems which are difficult to anticipate. Whatever means they find of sabotaging the vote, it would be foolish to rely on the conservative-dominated supreme court to stop them, particularly if the country has been plunged into civil unrest and violence.
That’s why measures like reforming the Electoral Count Act, something which Congress may take up in the lame duck session after the midterms, are not enough. Legal tinkering can only go so far in the face of a dedicated movement, especially if it is willing to go outside the law and provoke violence on the streets. The only thing that can avert an impending crisis is to keep Republican party’s election saboteurs out of office. Yet the Democratic party has decided to largely fight the midterms on other issues which they think motivate voters more effectively. And while it’s true that very few voters do identify threats to democracy as the most important issue facing the country, this is partly down to a failure of Democrats and the media to communicate just how bad things might get.
At least part of Democrats’ closing message in these elections must be dedicated to changing that. Voters need to understand that the threat to democracy is very real, and that bad choices this year could lead to complete breakdown in 2024. It might be impossible to stitch the national fabric back together or to return to free, competitive, reliable elections afterwards. Democracy is not some arcane or marginal topic but is at the very heart of America’s ability to undo its mistakes and move forwards as a nation. That makes these the most important midterms in American history. It’s way past time to communicate the stakes clearly.
Andrew Gawthorpe is a historian of the United States at Leiden University and host of the podcast America Explained
them no strategic or operational advantage.
Now Russia is using Iranianmade – and likely operated – drones against civilian infrastructure, particularly Ukrainian electricity and water supply systems. This is known as countervalue targeting, or hitting important non-military assets. It is a ruthless approach but it is a coherent one, as it aims to reduce an enemy’s will to fight. Unfortunately for Russia, while this works well in theory, history demonstrates that such an approach tends toincrease an enemy’s determination for the simple human reason that in war, people will hold their enemies accountable for themiseries they cause.
This is exactly what is likely to happen this winter. In the words of a friend of mine, a resident of Kyiv, “our response is cold hatred, not fear”. Although it is a concern that, while Ukraine manages to shoot down the great majority of the drones and missiles, the price in terms of Ukraine’s own supply of missiles “vastly exceeds Russian costs”. They are expending sophisticated (and expensive) missiles to shoot down what are essentially cheap drones.
Second, in the key campaign around Kherson, the Russian army has its back to the river Dniepro. Kherson has been a priority for both sides, because of its importance as the gateway to Crimea. There are signs that instead of planning a doomed and very costly last stand, Surovikin and his staff have in mind a withdrawal across the Dniepro (400m wide at that point) to the eastern half of the city. This, on the face of it, would be a sensible move – turning the river into a defensive asset for Russian units rather than an obstruction against which they will otherwise be trapped and annihilated.
It is clear Russia is now on the strategic defensive, signalled when Vladimir Putin declared the oblasts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk part of Russia and implicitly acknowledged the limits of his hitherto disastrous “special operation”. Thus far and no further, he was saying. So there seems to be no question of large-scale new Russian attempts to take land. The Ukrainians are far too strong. In no sector does Russia havesignificant materialor manpower superiority, let alone the three-to-one overmatch traditionally required for a successful attack.
Another factor suggesting the Russians will stay put is that while tens of thousands of mobilised but effectively untrained infantry have alleviated their shortages, these troops will be incapable of the kind of “combined arms” operations (tanks, artillery and infantry working together) we see from Ukrainians. Surovikin, though, is making a virtue out of necessity. The one thing relatively poorly trained but well dug in infantry can do is hold ground, as both sides discovered to their cost in the first world war. Intensive preparations are under way to develop a series of fortified and mine-strewn defensive lines in preparation for Ukraine’s next move.
In a wide-ranging interview in September, Ukraine’s commander- in-chief, General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, said that he saw Russia’s “centre of gravity” – the key to the war – as Crimea. All military indicators strongly suggest that Ukraine’s next offensives will set the peninsula as their objective.
For now, the Russian move towards defensive tactics, coupled with the realities of winter conditions, mean operations will slow down. The Russians are banking on a pause for their ravaged forces while they prepare for next year’s operations. But they will not receive it. Ukraine’s western-supplied artilleryand missile systems – which outranges Russian guns – will ensure no respite for the invaders in their trenches, dugouts and commandeered buildings.
Frank Ledwidge is a barrister and former military officer who has served in the Balkans, Iraq and Afghanistan. He is the author of Losing Small Wars and Investment in Blood