Manchin appearance with third-party group fuels speculation over 2024 run
The West Virginia senator Joe Manchin, who for years has held an outsized degree of power within the Democratic party, appeared on Monday at an event held by a political group exploring a third-party presidential bid. Manchin’s appearance has fueled speculation that he is considering a run for the presidency, a scenario that has alarmed Democrats as it could weaken President Joe Biden’s candidacy.
Manchin appeared at the group No Labels’ town hall meeting on Monday, alongside the Republican former Utah governor Jon Huntsman. They coheadlined the organization’s “Common Sense” policy platform release, the first in a series of events that the group says it will hold as the 2024 presidential election takes shape.
Manchin, a 75-year-old senator who is facing re-election next year, has not ruled out running for the presidency instead of seeking another term in the Senate. If he does run as part of a bipartisan and centrist ticket, polling shows that it would likely be doomed to fail while sapping voters away from Biden. Democratic groups have been working to quell attempts at running thirdparty spoiler candidates, warning that it could hand Trump the presidency.
“It’s pretty clear that a No Labels candidate would help re-elect Donald Trump, and I hope anybody who considers it recognizes that that’s a very possible outcome,” the Democratic senator Chris Van Hollen told the Hill.
Early in the town hall event, the moderator Kevin Cirilli asked Manchin and Huntsman if what the audience was seeing on stage was the No Labels presidential ticket.
“What we’re here to do is basically to explain to you that we need options,” Manchin deflected, adding that in his view the country’s two major parties had shifted to the “extreme left and extreme right”.
Manchin told the audience he believes that the only way to move Republicans and Democrats from their respective platforms is if they are “threatened” by independents. When asked if he would reconsider his candidacy if it meant he would potentially act as a spoiler in the presidential race, Manchin rejected the premise.
“I’ve never been in any race I’ve ever spoiled, I’ve been in races to win and if I get in a race I’m gonna win,” Manchin said to applause. “With that being said, I haven’t made a decision.”
Manchin is in a familiar position as a potential spoiler to Biden’s ambitions. As one of the most conservative Democrats and a key swing vote in the Senate, Manchin has blocked action on climate change, repeatedly criticized Biden’s policies, and derailed the administration’s efforts to pass major legislation.
No Labels sees Manchin as a potential candidate for its centrist platform, and the senator joined in at least one conference call with the group, according to Politico. Although No Labels has stated it will not field a candidate if their platform does not gain traction or if it appears it would swing the vote in favor of one party, the group has been actively fundraising and is seeking to get on ballots across the country.
Manchin also praised No Labels during an interview last month on Fox News, in which the senator deflected questions about a potential third-party candidacy and said he was “not ruling anything out”.
While No Labels has heavily promoted its vision of centrist governance – “America must strike a balance between protecting women’s rights to control their own reproductive health and our society’s responsibility to protect human life” is one example from its policy booklet – it has been silent about who is funding its efforts. A Mother Jones investigation last month found dozens of wealthy contributors that included many who backed conservative and Republican causes. Another investigation from the New Republic found that Harlan Crow, the conservative billionaire and supporter of the supreme court justice Clarence Thomas, donated over $130,000 to the group.
Polling indicates that a third-party candidate would most likely be a threat to Democrats. Several surveys over the past few months show that in a contest between Biden and Trump, the presence of a third party candidate – including Manchin or the progressive activist Cornel West – shifts vote percentages toward Republicans. A poll commissioned by Democratic and Republican strategists this month showed that the presence of a “moderate, independent third-party candidate” would gain around 20% of the vote and result in an electoral victory for Trump.