Costs, delays and labour shortages threaten the Osaka world expo
In the distance, beyond the clouds of sand kicked up by a coastal wind and passing lorries, the centrepiece of Osaka’s plan to “reconnect the world” is finally taking shape.
When completed, huge sections of timber will form an enormous walkway encircling a “forest of tranquillity” and pavilions showcasing the history, culture and technology of more than 130 countries, with the host, Japan, at its heart.
The frames – built using traditional methods that don’t require nails – and construction cranes lend a muchneeded dimension to the site’s otherwise barren surface of Yumeshima – “Dream Island” in Osaka Bay.
“When people come to the site and see it for themselves, they’re quite relieved by the progress that’s been made,” said Takumi Nagayama, director of maintenance and coordination at the Japan Association for the 2025 World Exposition. “A year ago, there was nothing here, but the ground has been levelled and the land flattened. The basic foundations are done.”
Despite his reassurances, the feeling among many Japanese officials is anything but relief. With the opening less than 600 days away, on 13 April 2025, structural and financial obstacles could force the event to be scaled down, and even postponed.
Beginning with the Great Exhibition in London in 1851, world expos have become an opportunity for countries to highlight their history and culture, and demonstrate how they are using social, economic and scientific advances to address the most urgent topics of the times – in Osaka’s case, the quest for sustainable development.
World expos are held every five years and last up to six months. The last one opened in Dubai in October 2021, delayed by the pandemic.
Since Osaka secured the hosting rights in 2018 – beating Yekaterinburg in Russia and Baku in Azerbaijan – the project has been blighted by poor planning, budget overruns and a lack of enthusiasm among prospective participants and the Japanese public.
Guided by the slogan “Designing future society for our lives”, the city is desperate to repeat the success of its last expo, in 1970, which drew more than 60 million visitors and confirmed Japan’s transformation from defeated empire into an economic and industrial powerhouse.
Of the 50 or so countries due to construct bespoke “type-A” pavilions,
which can cost tens of millions of pounds, only two, South Korea and the Czech Republic, are known to have submitted their designs. Just one has applied to the Osaka municipal government for permission to start building.
Last month Hajime Funada, an MP from the governing Liberal Democratic party, said cancellation should not be ruled out. “We had better keep the ‘courageous withdrawal’ option open in case it becomes clear that the expo will have to open with unfinished pavilions,” he wrote on his website. Cancelling would be seen as “dishonourable” but a failed expo “would be much worse”.
Newspapers across the political spectrum have voiced fears that an event intended to showcase the best of Japan’s culture and technological prowess could prove a massive flop. “If the current situation continues, there is a risk that some nations could withdraw from the event,” the conservative Yomiuri Shimbun said in an editorial.
With the clock ticking towards the opening – and advance ticket sales due to begin at the end of November – officials and politicians are being forced to think again.
The overspend on the budget that expo organisers presented to the bid committee in Paris five years ago is growing at an alarming rate. The cost of building the venue is expected to rise from the current ¥185bn to more than ¥200bn (£1.02bn to £1.1bn) due to soaring material and labour costs. As a result, Japanese construction firms are reluctant to sign contracts to build national pavilions, fearing significant losses as costs continue to spiral.
The project is also falling foul of a problem afflicting myriad sectors of the Japanese economy – a chronic labour shortage. The struggle to secure labour will intensify next April, when Japan introduces restrictions on overtime in the construction and other industries. Organisers have asked the government to exempt expo workers from the regulations, drawing a furious response from unions and lawyers specialising in karoshi “death from overwork” cases.
Some of expo’s problems stem from its offshore location. Access is currently restricted to construction workers via an undersea road tunnel that will eventually be open to the public.
But critics say a single road, along with a subway line now under construction, will not be enough to avoid traffic congestion and long waits among the 2.8 million visitors predicted during the six-month event, which is expected to generate about ¥2 trillion for the economy.
In August, the prime minister, Fumio Kishida, ordered ministers to redouble efforts to get the event ready on time. Preparations for the expo are in an extremely tight spot,” he said. The Osaka governor, Hirofumi Yoshimura, conceded that pavilion preparations had “not gone as planned”.
Full-scale national pavilions could be replaced by cheaper, more unified versions constructed by Osaka companies, according to media reports – an approach that would save time and money, but which would remove the qualities that make the exhibition spaces an expression of each country’s history and culture.
“Preparations are continuing, and we’re working hard to meet the deadline,” said Sachiko Yoshimura, executive director of global communications at the expo association. “We are working on the assumption that the expo will open in 2025 … there is no talk within our organisation of a postponement.”
Critics have questioned the need to hold large and expensive in-person events to celebrate national identities in an age of mass international travel and virtual tourism. When Osaka hosted the event more than half a century ago, few Japanese had been abroad or even met a foreigner. But that is no longer the case.
“Some people have questioned the need for an expo in this day and age,” Yoshimura said. “But we live in a world that has been divided by the Covid-19 pandemic, climate change and the war in Ukraine. The Osaka expo will be an opportunity for us to reconnect.”