The Guardian view on Israel’s allies: warm words and soft warnings
Joe Biden was scarcely back in the White House after Wednesday’s Middle East trip before Rishi Sunak became the next international leader to fly into Tel Aviv to express solidarity with Israel. Mr Sunak’s visit, which also came after one by the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, on Tuesday, followed an established pattern. He met the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to say he stood by Israel, paid a visit to President Isaac Herzog and held emotional meetings with families of some of the more than 1,400 Israelis who were murdered or kidnapped by Hamas on 7 October.
These visits all matter morally. More than anything else, they are public acts of solidarity and fellow feeling towards Israel and its people by their allies and their citizens. But these are also highly political trips, the public tip of an iceberg of diplomacy in which these allies are attempting, with nuances of difference and only mixed success, to influence its response to the Hamas attacks.
Mr Biden’s visit was by far the most important part of this. It could hardly be otherwise, given America’s wealth and aid, its military might in the region and the personal links that go with the US’s status as the first nation to recognise Israel. Germany and Britain are only secondary players by comparison. Mr Sunak’s onward journey to Riyadh this week is an example of it. Mr Biden’s cancelled summit with Palestinian, Jordanian and Egyptian leaders, boycotted by the Arab leaders after the explosion at Gaza’s al-Ahli Arab hospital this week, would have been an even more important one.
Mr Biden was characteristically empathic to Israelis on Wednesday. But he talked publicly, and presumably also in private, about the need for Israeli selfrestraint and about the urgent humanitarian crisis in Gaza. The descant to Washington’s support is its clear concern that overreaction by Israel would worsen the already severe suffering in Gaza, where at least 3,500 people have died, and escalate the conflict into a regional war into which others, including the US, risk being dragged. That anxiety is still strong.
The president said three significant things that need to be extended much further. First, he responded to Mr Netanyahu’s comparison with 9/11 by openly cautioning against allowing rage to shape policy. This is wise counsel and should be followed through. Second, Mr Biden pledged $100m in humanitarian aid for the Palestinian territories. Even millions are not enough – nor are 20 trucks of aid waiting in Egypt. Finally, he recommitted to a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict. Eventually, this is the only way to peace and justice for all.
Mr Netanyahu, fighting for his political life, is unlikely to take much of this seriously. That is why some of the things that Mr Biden did not say also matter. Most ominously, he passed over the likelihood of Israeli ground operations, which all but confirms reports that the US has given the nod to them. Mr Sunak was noticeably less cautionary about overreaction. Although Mr Biden spoke about Gaza’s need for food, water and medicine, he said nothing about electricity and fuel, which Israel has also blocked, making hospitals all but impossible to keep open.
A ground operation in Gaza would worsen the humanitarian crisis. Civilians are certain to be casualties, as they have often been before. This would have political consequences that are probably already germinating, empowering militant factions against those who support a peace process. The likelihood of regional escalation would grow. The conflict might migrate haphazardly around the globe. No one pretends that the alternative, protecting civilians while hunting down Hamas, is straightforward. But in the short and long term alike, it is the better way, and there is too little sign of real progress towards it.
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