Carbon pollution down nearly 2% in US – but not enough to meet Biden’s goal
Climate-altering pollution from greenhouse gases declined by nearly 2% in the United States in 2023, though not fast enough to meet Joe Biden’s targets, a new report finds.
The decline, while “a step in the right direction’’, is far below the rate needed to meet the president’s pledge to cut US emissions in half by 2030 compared to 2005 levels, said a report on Wednesday from the Rhodium Group, an independent research firm.
“Absent other changes″, the US is on track to cut greenhouse gas emissions by about 40% below 2005 levels by the end of the decade, said Ben King, associate director at Rhodium and lead author of the study.
The report said US carbon emissions declined by 1.9% last year. Emissions are down 17.2% from 2005.
To reach Biden’s goal, emissions would have to decline at a rate more than triple the 2023 figure and be sustained at that level every year until 2030, he said.
Increased economic activity, including more energy production and greater use of cars, trucks and airplanes, can be associated with higher pollution, although there is not always a direct correlation. The US economy grew by a projected 2.4% in 2023, according to the Conference Board, a business research group.
Last year’s relatively mild winter and continued declines in power generation from coal-fired plants drove down emissions in the US power and buildings sectors, the report said.
At the same time, transportation sector emissions rose, led by a continued rebound in airplane travel and increased gasoline consumption as road traffic returns to pre-pandemic levels, the report said. Higher domestic oil and gas production also led to a small increase in industrial emissions.
While carbon emissions declined overall, “some ominous signs also began to appear in 2023”, the report said. Natural gas generation grew more than twice as fast as renewables in 2023, compared to 2022. And while solar installations were on track for another record year, installations of wind turbines were down compared to 2022 and 2021, the report said.
Rising construction and financing costs, along with supply-chain constraints and other issues, have cast doubt on wind power’s once-robust growth. Two large offshore wind projects were canceled late last year, jeopardizing the Biden administration’s goal to power 10m homes from huge ocean-based turbines by the end of the decade.
Biden and congressional Democrats passed the most sweeping climate law in US history in 2022, but effects of the law, known as the Inflation Reduction Act, are just beginning to be felt and are unlikely to have a significant impact on emissions for a few years, King said.
The climate law, passed with only Democratic votes, authorizes nearly $375bn in tax credits and other incentives to spur investors to accelerate clean energy such as solar and wind power, speeding the transition away from the burning of fossil fuels such as oil, coal and gas that largely cause climate change.
US oil production, meanwhile, hit an all-time high in 2023, contrasting with Biden’s efforts to slice heat-trapping carbon emissions and conflicting with oft-repeated Republican talking points of a Biden “war on American energy”.
Methane leaks, along with venting and flaring of methane and carbon dioxide during oil and gas production and transportation, drove the bulk of industrial sector emissions increases in 2023, the report said. Rhodium estimates new EPA rules finalized last month will reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the oil and gas sector by nearly 40% compared with current levels.