FIGHT TO THE FINISH
Pacers’ playoff race heats up for last 2 weeks of season
INDIANAPOLIS -- Rick Carlisle entered the Collins-Fuson press conference room in Gainbridge Fieldhouse with a lot that he wasn’t thrilled about from the Pacers’ 133-111 win over the Nets on Monday.
The Nets were on their second night of a back-to-back after playing the Lakers in Brooklyn on Sunday and they were missing a few key pieces, including wings Cameron Johnson and Dennis Smith Jr., due to injury. Their postseason hopes hang by the tiniest of mathematical threads, and the Nets in every way, operated like a team that had accepted its fate as a lottery team.
Carlisle saw his team take advantage of the Nets’ weaknesses, but with the calendar having turned to April he wanted his team to look like a playoff team, and in his mind, it didn’t. Still, beating the Nets and doing so without a serious challenge was a good start to the season’s final two weeks with so much still possible in terms of where the Pacers can begin their postseason.
They improved to 43-33, a high-water mark for their season at 10 games above .500 and maintained a one-game lead over the Heat for sixth in the Eastern Conference, the last position to avoid the play-in round. The Pacers also cannot finish worse than eighth in the Eastern Conference standings.
Even if the Pacers fade from their current spot and end up in the play-in round, they will need to win one of two games to advance to a best-of-seven series for the first time since 2020 rather than needing two wins without a loss as the No. 9 and No. 10 seeds need.
And with just six games remaining on their schedule, the Eastern Conference is so tightly packed that -- though unlikely -- it’s quite conceivable that they could move above sixth place. The Celtics (59-16) ran away with the conference’s best record and clinched the No. 1 seed. However, no other position is solidified. The Bucks have just a 2 1/2 game lead on third-place Cleveland, a threegame lead on the fourth-place Knicks and a 3 1/2 game lead on the fifth-place Magic. The Cavs, in turn, are up just 1/2 game on the Knicks, one on Orlando and 2 1/2 up on the Pacers, who are just one game up on the Heat and 2 1/2 up on the eighth-place 76ers. The distance between the No. 3 seed and the No. 8 is all of five games. What follows is a look at the teams currently holding positions 2-8 in the standings and their outlooks for the rest of their schedule with the end of the regular season drawing near.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Current position: 3rd place
Record: 45-30
Last 10 games: 4-6
Remaining schedule: April 2 @Utah. April 3 - @Phoenix. April 6 @L.A. Lakers. April 7 - @L.A. Clippers. April 10 - Memphis. April 13 - Indiana. April 14 - Charlotte.
Outlook: Cavaliers coach J.B. Bickerstaff and his team have done a remarkable job of holding things together despite significant injuries. Big man Jarrett Allen (70) and forward Georges Niang (75) are the only players have played in at least 66 games. All-Star guards Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland have played just 51 each and Mitchell has played in just seven of 22 games since the All-Star break thanks to a bruised knee and a nasal fracture.
All that missed time does seem to be finally taking a toll, however, as the Cavaliers have lost five of seven since their win over the Pacers at Gainbridge on March 18.
Mitchell made just 7 of 25 shots in his last two games in his most recent return and the Cavaliers seem to be having a hard time re-integrating all the key pieces. That said, they have three games left against lottery-bound teams in Utah, Memphis and Charlotte that could help keep them afloat and getting two wins in the remaining four games might be enough for them to hold third. The fact the Knicks own the tiebreaker on them presents an issue.
New York Knicks
Current position: 4th place
Record: 44-30
Last 10 games: 7-3
Remaining schedule: April 2 - @Miami. April 4 - Sacramento. April 5 @Chicago. April 7 - @Milwaukee. April 9 - @Chicago. April 11 - @Boston. April 12 Brooklyn. April 14 - Chicago.
Outlook: The Knicks don’t have many gimmes on the board and five of their eight remaining games are on the road. They had reason to hope that they’d get to bring back All-Star forward Julius Randle and All-Defensive team wing O.G. Anunoby by this point, but they remain out.
However, the Knicks have hung in there despite their absences thanks so a sensational season from Jalen Brunson, so there’s little reason to believe they’re in for a collapse down the stretch. Tuesday’s game against the Heat is critical as is Thursday’s game against the Kings. The Bucks may not be in a position to rest anyone on Sunday so that won’t be an easy win, and the Bulls will be fighting to hold on to home court advantage in the 9-10 play-in round. The Knicks tiebreaker edge on the Cavaliers helps if they make a rise, but they lost the season series to Orlando 3-1.
Orlando Magic
Current position: 5th place
Record: 44-31
Last 10 games: 7-3
Remaining schedule: April 3 @New Orleans. April 5 - @Charlotte. April 7 - Chicago. April 9 - @Houston. April 10 - @Milwaukee. April 12 - @Philadelphia. April 14 - Milwaukee.
Outlook: The Magic, like the Pacers, are a young team looking to go back to the playoffs for the first time since 2020. A key difference, however, is while the Pacers have won with tempo and offense, the Magic have won with size and defense, ranking third in the NBA in fewest points allowed and second in defensive rating.
That makes Orlando less explosive but more consistent, but they still do get by on a small margin for error and they have struggled on the road with a 17-19 mark. Unlike the Pacers, they’re pretty reliable when it comes to beating teams they’re supposed to beat, and against a post-All-Star break schedule that was top-heavy with bottom-of-the league teams they’ve gone 14-6 in their last 20 games including 7-3 in their last 10.
But their remaining schedule isn’t a cakewalk with just two home games left and five on the road. They might catch a break if the Bucks earn the No. 2 seed before April 10, but otherwise they’ll be playing against six teams with something to play for in their last seven games.
Indiana Pacers
Current position: 6th
Current record: 43-33
Last 10 games: 6-4
Remaining schedule: April 3 @Brooklyn. April 5 - Oklahoma City. April 7 - Miami. April 9 - @Toronto. April 12 - @Cleveland. April 14 - Atlanta.
Outlook: The Pacers’ tendency to lose to lottery-bound teams but also beat the best teams in the NBA makes it difficult to predict how they might fare in any stretch of games. They’ve defeated every team in the Eastern Conference at least once and have two wins over Boston, four over Milwaukee, two over Cleveland and two over the Knicks, but two losses each at the hands of the Hornets, Raptors and Blazers and one each against the Spurs, Wizards and Grizzlies.
That said, if Monday’s game is any indication, the Pacers might be looking at two teams looking to check out in the Nets and Raptors. Toronto has beaten the Pacers twice and their length is a problem for Indiana, but they’ve lost 13 straight games.
Oklahoma City could obviously be trouble as the Thunder hold a 1/2 game lead on the Western Conference No. 1 seed. The Sunday game against the Heat might be the most important game of the season as it will also decide who holds the tiebreaker.
The Cleveland game could be extremely interesting if the Cavs don’t lock up the 3 seed,. The Pacers have beaten them two out of three so far, but would need the win to hold the tiebreaker.
Miami Heat
Current position: 7th place
Record: 41-33
Last 10 games: 6-4
Remaining schedule: April 2 - New York. April 4 - Philadelphia. April 5 @Houston. April 7 - @Indiana. April 9 -@Atlanta. April 10 - Dallas. April 12 Toronto. April 14 - Toronto.
Outlook: The Heat’s closing slate is tough with two back-to-backs still on the schedule and five games left against teams with a lot to play for. The Knicks see the No. 3 seed in their sites, the 76ers might be getting Joel Embiid back, the Rockets are chasing the Warriors for the last spot in the Western Conference play-in round, and the Pacers know beating the Heat is their best chance to avoid the play in. The Mavericks are in fifth in the West without a ton of space between them and the play-in round either. The only relief is the games against Toronto to end the season.
That said, no one is more used to having their backs against the wall than the Heat, who lost their first play-in round game last year, but won the second and proceeded to knock off seeds No. 1, 5 and 2 to reach the NBA Finals. The Heat have had some shaky performances but also some dominant ones in recent weeks, and obviously any team with Jimmy Butler is not to be underestimated.
Philadelphia 76ers
Current position: 8th place
Record: 40-35
Last 10 games: 4-6
Remaining schedule: April 2 - Oklahoma City. April 4 - @ Miami. April 6 @Memphis. April 7- @San Antonio. April 9 - Detroit. April 12 - Orlando. April 14 - Brooklyn.
Outlook: The 76ers have been in near free-fall since Jan. 30 when reigning MVP Joel Embiid tore his meniscus in a loss to the Warriors. The 76ers won their next game to improve to 30-17 but they are 10-18 since with just five wins in their last 15 games.
However, it’s been reported that Embiid is returning perhaps as soon as Tuesday to play against the Thunder. It might take a while for him to get back to top condition and it will still be hard for them to grab wins over the Thunder and Heat if he’s not 100%, but any version of him should give Philadelphia a chance against Memphis, San Antonio, Detroit and Brooklyn.
If Embiid rounds into shape in the playoffs, Philadelphia could be dangerous regardless of where it ends up seeded.