Virus case rate decline leads to cautious optimism
With the COVID-19 vaccines expected to arrive in Michigan within a week, that’s certainly the biggest positive in the pandemic struggle.
While numbers have been soaring for weeks in Michigan and around the country, the words “cautious optimism” crept into a discussion of the latest data (up to Dec. 5) from Sarah LyonCallo, Ph.D, director of the bureau of epidemiology and population health for the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services on Wednesday.
“As far as our case rates we have some cautious optimism here in that we are seeing our case rates declining. We’re now down at 515 cases per million people per day. When I look at some of the more recent data we’re still seeing that decline,’’ Lyon-Callo said.’
Still case rates remain some of the highest to date since the spring and the number of reported outbreaks has increased from the previous week.
She said coronavirus-like illness complaints and diagnoses in the emergency rooms have been decreasing for more than two weeks.
The percent positivity, the percent of all diagnostic tests that are positive, has plateaued over the past three weeks. It stands at 14.4 percent.
“One of the things positivity indicates is whether we’re testing enough to be able to identify all cases in the state. So when we see testing declining and positivity going up that’s a signal that we need to be testing more,’’ LyonCallo said.
Compared to other states, Michigan ranks sixth in daily testing at 56,500;11th in percentage of the population tests at 3.96; and 16th in percent positive (14.4).
In the last seven days Michigan has recorded the 7th highest number of cases, 4th highest number of deaths, 25th highest case rate and 8th highest death rate. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and MDHHS Director Robert Gordon shared on Monday that three key metrics will play into their decisions whether to extend the “pause” which now expires on Dec. 20.
Those metrics (all on a seven-day rolling average) are:
• Percent positivity
• Cases per million people based on the onset date.
• Percent of inpatient beds that are being used to treat COVID-19 patients. That number is 18.7 percent.
“I need to be really clear as an epidemiologist there isn’t one single metric that encapsulates everything about how the pandemic is responding to people’s behavior, how the disease is spreading in the community and what that spread means in terms of our healthcare system and our public health system and people’s lives,’’ Lyon-Callo said.