Shore relief?
Great Lakes water levels below the peak, but higher than normal for this time of year
Water levels on the Great Lakes are down. But don’t empty those sandbags just yet. “We are tracking below last year but we’re still well above the normal average for this time of year,” said Deanna Apps, physical scientist for the United States Army Corps of Engineers in the Detroit District and lead forecaster for Great Lakes water levels. “So, we will still need to be prepared for potential flooding and erosion, and remain cautious when boating or recreating along the shorelines.”
Great Lakes levels
The driver of water levels is Mother Nature, said Apps.
As explained by the Tip of the Mitt Watershed Council for northern Michigan, the hydrologic cycle, as it’s also known, determines water supply to the Great Lakes Basin. The cycle is basically water inflow (precipitation, runoff, and water from streams and groundwater) minus water outflow (evaporation and water flowing out of the system) equals a change in lake water levels.
Changes are caused by climatic factors and weather patterns such as precipitation and temperature. For the most part, continuous wet and cold years will cause water levels to rise, while consecutive warm and dry years will cause water levels to decline.
Changes in water levels over long periods of time are usually a result of higher or lower precipitation (rain and snow) and evaporation rates.
Precipitation anywhere in the Great Lakes Basin, whether over the water or somewhere inland, will find its way into the Great Lakes. Increased precipitation will raise their levels. Lower precipitation leads to lower runoff from the Basin causing lake levels to decline. Evaporation draws water from the lakes causing levels to decline. It occurs most often when the temperature difference between the water and the air is greatest. Such conditions occur in the fall, when the air has cooled but the water still retains some of the heat gained during the summer. If ice cover is not significant, the open water continues to lose vapor to the dry winter air, dropping water levels even more.
A look at the seasons and the cycle shows winter to be the biggest factor in determining Great Lakes water levels. A wet winter with above normal snowfall and bitter cold temperatures creates vast
ice cover and causes lake levels to rise, but a mild winter with warmer temperatures and subsequently less ice cover and more evaporation will decrease lake levels.
In the early 1970s and 1980s, a lot of rain and snow raised the water levels of the Great Lakes to above average. But they took a turn again when warm winters with sporadic snowfall resulted in the prolonged period of low water experienced between 1999 and 2014.
During the winters of 2017 and 2019, the entire Great Lakes region experienced wet conditions, Apps said, including large amounts of precipitation and bitter cold temperatures that created vast ice cover, snow melt and spring runoff.
In 2020, conditions were a little drier but there was still a lot of precipitation earlier in the year.
This past winter was not only drier but a great deal warmer than the previous years. Combined with frigid temperatures in February, it caused an increase in evaporation across the lakes and an ice jam on the St. Clair River that caused a considerable amount of flooding along several shoreline communities.
However, the water receded once the U.S. Coast Guard cutter Bristol Bay and the Canadian Coast Guard cutters Griffon and Samuel Risley were able to break up the ice jams.
Lower levels
The Army Corps of Engineers reported water levels on all of the Great Lakes to be lower in February.
• Lake Michigan and Huron are reported to be down nearly a foot lower than a year ago.
• Even lower was Lake Ontario, which is now almost 35 inches lower than last year.
• Lake Superior’s water level, which dropped by 3 inches, is currently 9 inches lower than 2020.
• Lake Erie saw a drop of 15 inches, but that could be due to the ice jams that occurred upstream on the St. Clair River.
• Lake St. Clair’s water levels are also lower. In February they were reported to be 11 inches down from last year at this time but are still 24 inches above average.
“I think water levels are down everywhere,” said Nicki Polan of the Oakland County and president of the Michigan Boating Industry Association.
Out of curiosity, Polan did a random survey of family, friends and business associates who have homes or property on inland lakes including Cass, Union, Loon, Brendel and Elizabeth Lake and they all reported levels to be lower.
“That’s good
news
for property owners, boaters and anyone else who is negatively affected by the higher waters,” Polan said.
One who would concur is Macomb County Sheriff Anthony Wickersham.
Last year around this time his deputies were building docks on top of docks in order to reach their patrol boats at the Marine Division Office in Harrison Township. The office is nestled on a peninsula on Lake St. Clair. The water was so high that every time there were high southerly winds the waves would crash against the shoreline and threaten the integrity of the marina, boathouse and office. A wall of sandbags held up but it was touch and go for several weeks.
“Right now it looks fine,” said Wickersham. “It’s no longer an emergency situation this year but we’re not going to ignore it but look at a permanent solution for the future.”
That includes a new seawall, a covered docking area for the boats, and possibly a new office.
Doug Vosler, who owns Anchor Bay Marina in New Baltimore and has been serving the needs of boaters in southeast Michigan for years, is among those who could not be happier about the lower levels.
“The season has already been great,” Vosler said. “We still have about 600 sandbags in storage if we need them but we’re taking down the preparations we’ve had in place for the high water levels last year.”
Preparations last year included extra docks extended out onto the Salt River, which snakes through a number of canal communities before spilling out into Lake St. Clair.
“Boaters had to deal with a lot of extra circumstances last year,” Vosler said.
Some of the challenges for boaters included not being able to find gas because gas stations had problems with water seeping into their fuel tanks, or traveling to their favorite sandbar or little island for a picnic on the beach, or a drop-anchor party only to find the sandbar had disappeared.
Homeowners down the road along the Jefferson Avenue canals and the shoreline of Lake St. Clair also endured several seasons of flooding. A drive along the shore shows a few for-sale signs while others are working to raise their property to combat the water that follows a wet winter.
Despite the problems of high water levels, Vosler said he was busy during the pandemic due to people’s increased interest in boating and the need for outdoor recreation,and expects this season to be even better.
“People are already putting their boats in the water,” Polan said. “My son is already pushing me to get ours ready and it’s not even
spring.”
Being prepared
While the forecast for Lake St. Clair water levels for 2021 is lower than 2020, officials are reminding residents they still project to be well above their long-term average.
“We still anticipate that there will be flooding events along the lakeshore this spring, summer, and fall, especially on days where the wind blows in from an easterly direction,” said Brandon Lewis, director of Macomb County Emergency Management and Communications. “Residents should prepare now and remain vigilant, make sure their flood insurance is up to date, work now to install temporary barriers in areas prone to flood, tie down loose objects in their yards, and remove valuables from lower levels of their home.”
As the winter season gives way to spring and summer there is always the chance for precipitation and high winds. This weekend and into next week there is a chance for both.
Emergency Management will continue to work with local communities to help them deliver resources and implement programs to assist their residents, as well as provide timely information about flooding via the press, social media, and on their website, oemc.macombgov.org.